Re: Next thing you know the Dow’s down 9000 points

Rhward3rd — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:32:02 -0000

Google is the online Walmart.

They will show up in your neighborhood eventually.

Learn from the struggles of others: customer intimacy, specialize, innovate.

Re: Wisdom of (this) crowd?

Rhward3rd — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 12:10:31 -0000

Ok, so some thoughts from my world, the boundary between molecules and electrons....

Perhaps you should expand your idea into a triangle. The corners would be Banks, Telcos and ...Physical Assets

There is a constant exchange occuring between the entities, and as we progress, the volume of exchange is only going to increase. as is the meta-data around everything.

Specific example: Shell has a gas field in Holland that has just come online. It is the most automated gas field ever built and has a spin-up time of 5-10 minutes. Push a button - 5 minutes later you are delivering a quanta of contracted gas. This spin-up time is faster than the spin-up time of most gas-fired peaker plants.

Now, these gas molecules are sold almost exlusively to power generators. Thus the molecules are actually physically "converted" to electrons. The electrons are then carried over wires and sold to end users, that use electronic payments from their bank carried over telco wires (or the same wires if using broadband over powerlines) which is processed by the power company and then pays Shell. And of course each step of the physical, telco and financial supply chain is monitored and logged and increasingly meta-data'ed.

So this then raises some interesting questions:
- Who's the Bank?
- Who's the Telco?
- What's the most valuable thing on the table?
- Are gas molecules, or electron potentials also currency units, thus the whole thing is really a Forex transaction?

So if you really want to throw some fun in there; could I hedge the payment risk in a contract denominated in World of Warcraft Gold or Linden Dollars?

Also, with respect Rod's comment:
"What seems to be happening with increased M2M communication is that production oriented industries remain vertical but get more distributed - so monolithic companies go away in favour of functional specialists but we still have largely vertical organization of these "organs" into a cohesive vertical body. In information oriented businesses we have seen some disruption of newspapers for example but the "community" still organizes itself vertically (bloggers on particular subjects for example)."

I think the underlying factor is 'inertia of delivery'. If your entire supply chain is electronic (banks, telcos, bloggers, etc) there is little incentive to build long term linkages as the energy needed to initiate delivery is almost zero and you can stop delivery instantaneously as well. Now, when you shift over to the physical world that is obviously not the case. As such there will always be a lag in the 'nimbleness' of the heavy assets side of the coin. However, there are segments that are becoming very nimble and natural gas in a well connected network of multiparty pipelines (EU and US) is one example. Once the gas crosses a certain boundary it becomes cached and then converted to an electronic instrument. Trades occur, and then at the end of the period there is a physical settlement process. Its not entirely un-heard of for someone to produce gas on Monday and then pump the exact same molecules back into the reservoir on Tuesday, but a little bit wealthier.

Ok, its not all fully thought out, but its a thought. I think you need to expand your thinking to include the physical boundary. If for no other reason than in times of crisis confidence claws its way down the Maslow 2.0 of: Derivatives (financial, telco-ish), to Currencies to the base of Commodities/Molecules (Gold, food, guns etc).

And as RFID, smartphones, etc progress every physical asset will be fully represented digitally.

...and I'll join Tony at the W&C for the 6th Paradigm explanation...

Re: Wisdom of (this) crowd?

Rhward3rd — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 11:12:08 -0000

thinking.... thinking....

Re: Bittersweet mint.

Rhward3rd — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:21:32 -0000

My first emotional response to hearing that Mint had been acquired by Intuit was... To shut down my account and start over someplace else.

Why? Because I'm pretty sure Intuit has a lot of marketing pukes that will be given a mandate to "make this deal work!". As such, I the humble Mint customer, will be subjected to EVERY half-baked cross-sell/up-sell idea they hear about.

The Minters knew we were the geese that were going to lay their golden eggs, so they at least restrained themselves a bit when it came to this stuff. But I fear that the non-equity, salary only, employees of Intuit will see me as a cow to be milked instead.

Last time I checked geese had no teats. But we do have wings...

Re: Ahem.

Rhward3rd — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 15:15:51 -0000

Sean,

I've been following your writing for a couple of months now, but I am unclear on your definition/examples of "21st century finance models" and how those compare/contrast with the existing 19/th20th Century models.

Is there a manifesto someplace, or a set of epistle posts that frame the main points of your argument?

I ask because I'm trying to push through on similar issues in the area of heavy asset related information and I have found that the financial area is ahead on the curve (while too slow for some observers...) compared to many other sectors.

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Re: Next thing you know the Dow’s down 9000 points

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Re: Bittersweet mint.

Re: Ahem.