Disqus - Latest Comments for Lawrence_Chiu

Re: CNBC Poll: When Will the Dow Cross 10,000?

Lawrence_Chiu — Mon, 24 Jun 2013 05:21:51 -0000

test

Re: Snorefest Wednesday Rub Down

Lawrence_Chiu — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:58:00 -0000

fa_q, thank you for all your posts at ES and hope you will continue.

Re: California sells $8.8 bln in notes to record retail demand

Lawrence_Chiu — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:19:25 -0000

Today is October 14. In 2008, October 14th 2008 was a very important day because it was the last rally before a big decline into the mid 700's from above 1000. Weird if it happens the same again.

Looks like they got your stop.

Re: California sells $8.8 bln in notes to record retail demand

Lawrence_Chiu — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:45:52 -0000

Did you get stopped out? There is a strong magnet at Dow 10,000 and SPX 1120. It would give the Administration an opportunity to declare Mission Accomplished.

Re: California sells $8.8 bln in notes to record retail demand

Lawrence_Chiu — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:05:57 -0000

Are you really holding shorts until 600? Since you are a pro, how do people react when you tell them markets will retest the lows or go even lower? When I say it, I get called names such as 'insane', 'stubborn', 'crazy'. People tell me they will go all in (long) if we ever get back to 900. Amazing. No fear to go long, they tell me.

Re: Fed Said to Start Talks With Dealers on Using Reverse Repos

Lawrence_Chiu — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:54:38 -0000

Shorting at 1080 is going to look like going long at 666 in a few months.

Re: Commitment of Traders 09/15/2009

Lawrence_Chiu — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 15:27:41 -0000

Dip buyers continued to be rewarded. When will this end!

Re: Bonds trading at all time highs

Lawrence_Chiu — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:03:32 -0000

What was your entry price for the shorts? Your 400 target would surprise many people but I have heard similar numbers. For example, Glenn Neely of Neowave says below 500. quote: ""Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917."

Link: http://www.neowave.com/comp...

Neely certainly got the top wrong (917) though.

I am interested in hearing about statistical strategies. What I am using is definitely not working.

Re: Bonds trading at all time highs

Lawrence_Chiu — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 20:09:28 -0000

Are you planning to get short, or you already short? I don't think bears have any money left to short. What did you end up doing with your FAZ?

I have seen predictions that we won't top until 1080 to 1120. That's not impossible. It looks like we are going to get a blow-off parabolic top.

Re: Bonds trading at all time highs

Lawrence_Chiu — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 20:05:50 -0000

Ah, I see ProphetCharts in TOS adjusts the chart prices for dividends. Thanks for pointing that out.

Re: uidezine comment about me

Lawrence_Chiu — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 23:11:47 -0000

Hey good to see you. I have to say your warnings about trading turned out to be so true. Country boys in the city indeed. Did you end up chasing the market higher as it melted up? It must be tough being a pro in this market because fundamentally, stocks don't have any business at this level yet if you don't buy, you fall behind your peers and your clients pull their money out. If you told me back in March, we would be trading above 1000, I would have thought you were insane. But here we are.

Things are dead quiet on the blog. A bear doesn't have much use posting in a bull market. Anything caught short in the past 6 months have been run over. Hope things are better for you over the pond.

You might want to check out the following blogs. Lots of good traders are there and making money too:

http://bluechipbulldog.blog...
http://evilspeculator.com/

Re: uidezine comment about me

Lawrence_Chiu — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 12:46:06 -0000

Hi mgatani, To join Nandu's blog, start posting real time trades. You could do it here at this blog, for example. If you can show a successful track record, he will invite you. I'm not speaking for him, but I think that's how it works.

Re: Nasdaq about to make a 50% rally since the March lows...

Lawrence_Chiu — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:00:42 -0000

Mr. L,

In your prior post, you said the crash / next drop will start in September, now you say July 20th. Just wondering which you mean? Thank you. Also do you see us going to new lows? How is this possible if the banks are not allowed to fail?

March lows was due to sheer panic the banking industry was going bankrupt. What would cause this panic again?

Re: Nasdaq about to make a 50% rally since the March lows...

Lawrence_Chiu — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 02:02:07 -0000

Hi Mr. L, what do you use for your stock market analysis? Gann, Fibonacci, trend lines, volume dynamics, supply-and-demand, fractal/patterns, etc.?

Re: My Apology

Lawrence_Chiu — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:53:33 -0000

Today is Bradley Turn date.

I am wondering why you expect a bullish reaction on UE numbers since the last report didn't muster a rally from much lower level (880's)?

In addition, JPM is not Goldman Sachs. GS made huge amount of money...over $5 billion in proprietary trading, nearly half from trading equities for their own benefit (versus client-trades). JPM is saddled with WaMu mortgages, credit cards, HELOC's, etc. Last quarter credit card delinquencies hit nearly 10%.

T-theory says today can be the top. Count the number of days from the July 1st top to the July 8 bottom = 5 trading days. 5 trading days since then is July 14. Perfect symmetry. That plus the bradley turn date plus that we are butting against major resistance (confluence of fib lines, the down trendline that Josh posted, etc.) says the top may be in.

Re: My Apology

Lawrence_Chiu — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 22:58:12 -0000

arak0, do you have any IT short positions left? You were expecting the market to come back to 900 range, that was nicely called. In your Sunday comment, you still had IT trades.

===
arak0 1 day ago
I'm holding my IT trade now ... need to add more ... Hope they bring this up to the the 900 range by the 22nd.

Re: My Apology

Lawrence_Chiu — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 22:51:19 -0000

Hi UI, I was wondering if you can update us (via a new post for example) whenever you see these SD patterns emerged. Sometimes it is easy to miss in the comments. The new post doesn't have to be very in-depth. It can be a short "Got 60% confidence IT buy signal." That would have saved my bacon if I saw that. It would really help those of us who don't have your skill in reading the tape.

Unfortunately, I was playing off the head and shoulders pattern, so I shorted on a retest of the neckline. Now my position is pretty broken. Ugh, I make a lot of mistakes.

Can you post when you exit your SDS? I will close at a loss I reckon but it would be nice to exit the short when you do. This blog feels like a real team.

Re: Statistics - (not cristal ball reading)

Lawrence_Chiu — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:18:54 -0000

Are you IT and ST bullish now? Do you still have SDS? Thank you.

Very painful to be a bear these days. Just when it seems like things are going our way, we get run over by a freight train. Sick of this.

Re: Weekend Update

Lawrence_Chiu — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 00:24:51 -0000

"no longer ST or IT bearish now"

I can't believe it. Are you really MACT? What about the derivatives problem at the banks, the commercial real estate debacle, etc. I saved the following comment from you about 3 months ago since it just made sense to me. Has anything changed at all? I mean you even told us to expect a rally to 200 DMA. Well here we are!

=== (quote from MACT below from March 2009)
commercial real estate loans, credit cards, small business loans, HELOCS...the european press has reported european banks need 25T to bail themselves out and you really think even 6T is going to cover our banking systems losses...the CDS mkt is 55T and this needs to be unwound...the total world derivatives mkt is 1.5 quadrillion dollars...thats right 1500T dollars...yet the liquid net wroth of the planet is only 100T and the worlds real estate 75T.

All the govt is doing is buying themselves and the banking industry some time...just abit more time for the elites to "prepare" before the implosion actually starts later this yr...I am more convinced than ever that were in a depression...its easy to say it when the mkts tanking 500 pts a day but I will still be saying it when SPX is at 950 and a picture of a bull killing a bear is on the cover of newsweek and time magazine...this will coincide with with SPX running into the 200 DMA...just watch.
=== end quote

Re: Weekend Update

Lawrence_Chiu — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:27:25 -0000

Your twitter update says you shorted at ES 894. So I am confused by your "(SPX) 920 seems within grasp" outlook. Thank you for explaining.

Re: Fall Down

Lawrence_Chiu — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:34:58 -0000

Hi DMA,

Did you sell all of your July puts? I still have some and they're taking a beating today. I guess I got greedy and was holding out for low 800's for S&P500. Anyway, I hope you got out.

===
1 week ago
in Top Performer of the Day on Slope of Hope with Tim Knight
Sold 25% of my July 90 SPY puts! Hold remaining! BTW can those more economically astute then me explain the term "jobless recovery".. Ive heard it so many times but I cant fathom it. Is it truly possible?

Re: Time to build your position

Lawrence_Chiu — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:09:27 -0000

OK, 2nd try, raja = king in Indian

I don't want to take credit, I just googled indian word for king and got the Wikipedia entry

http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...

Re: Time to build your position

Lawrence_Chiu — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:04:20 -0000

So easy, shah.

Re: Decent risk reward to go long here

Lawrence_Chiu — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:06:21 -0000

Tomorrow is bullish. AA (Alcoa) reported earnings and they beat.

http://finance.yahoo.com/ne...

quote: "Alcoa reported another quarterly loss Wednesday, but one that was narrower than expected. The company's sales exceeded forecasts as well."

Metal stocks ... like FCX flying high AH... AA up 8%

I agree the top is in, but I think we can get as high as 893 to 904 on ES.

Re: IYR Real Estate

Lawrence_Chiu — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:16:25 -0000

Aprove