Disqus - Latest Comments for JofArnold

Re: Blodget’s charts history of battle between Android and Apple; says Apple should be worried

Jof Arnold — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 09:51:54 -0000

Thanks Nic.

I share the same opinion regarding their purchase of Motorola. That and the TV stuff - the next battlefield.Re what this means for developers, I'll restate my long-standing view on this for the record:1/ Web technologies will win (I'm willing to say they *have* won, as of iOS5 and the new Kindle book format)2/ Content stores ("portals") will win - i.e. "apps" and "books" will be the dominant media - not browsers.
Bonus 3/ The platform with the best business model will dominate long-term

Re: Blodget’s charts history of battle between Android and Apple; says Apple should be worried

Jof Arnold — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 09:05:59 -0000

I don't see this the same way. In my opinion this is a battle between Samsung and Apple, not Android and Apple. Regarding companies "worrying" that's just link-bait, and (arguably) back-to-front in this context; i.e. it's Google who should be "worried". Apple's publicly-stated mission is for maximum profit, so beyond SJ's hate of alleged IP-thievery they probably don't care a great deal from a business POV about Android specifically. I mean, what other company in the history of hardware tech has continued to rake in exponentially-increasing profits in the face of massive competition and during the worst economic climate since 1930?

No, who should care is Google - the success of Android is now very much influenced by Samsung and Google knows they'll drop/branch Android in a heartbeat. And this isn't just hypothetical - Samsung is known to be courting WebOS(maybe) and Linux as alternative platforms (it even already has its own) and people companies avoid Android in order to own the stack and avoid paying MS royalties; just look at Amazon.

Of course, none of this matters to developers - they're merely slightly-segmented distribution and payment platforms in the end.

Just my obligatory boilerplate pro-Apple, pro-Samsung 2c as normal ;)

[Edit: if you're still confident about the Android ecosystem being on strong foundations, check out how Baidu forked Android]

Re: A checklist of distribution channels for startups

Jof Arnold — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 08:49:51 -0000

Caveat: biz dev can be a killer for v early-stage though (especially pre product-market fit).

Re: The gamification of everything….

Jof Arnold — Tue, 12 Oct 2010 11:44:42 -0000

Amen indeed. (Perhaps surprisingly) I'm anti-gamification in the sense that liberal use of the word without too much thought can lead to depersonalising and patronising your customers.

Re: KakiGarden

Jof Arnold — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 04:34:22 -0000

Best thing on the internet ever!

Re: The power and limitations of HTML5

Jof Arnold — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:53:15 -0000

I feel like I'm literally the only person on the web not to have liked that video. I love the song, but when I looked at the video I found myself thinking; "Is that it? Is that the state of the art after all this time?" It feels contrived and limited by the realities of the new technology rather than pushing any true boundaries and exploring something new. I.e. had this been shown to us in flash about 5 years ago I still wouldn't have been surprised.

Then again, I DO have a HD realtime 3D castle on my iPhone 4 (Epic Castle) that's so detailed you can pick out the individual branches on the ivy... So perhaps I expect more these days?

Or perhaps I'm simply being awkward :P

Re: Apple to Live Stream Press Conference — to Apple Customers Only

Jof Arnold — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 03:42:48 -0000

HTTP Live Streaming is open, is being submitted to the IETF and has already been implemented by companies other than Apple.

Re: Whales, power-laws and the future of media

Jof Arnold — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 15:43:18 -0000

Good answer :)

Re: Whales, power-laws and the future of media

Jof Arnold — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 10:04:48 -0000

I still wonder:
"How dangerous is it to have 1% of your users generating 99% of your revenue"
More extreme than your case of course, but I wonder where is the cut-off.

Mind you, in the case of the music industry that's a whole lot better than 100% generating 0% of your revenue which is currently the case.

Re: The counter arguments to Kurzweil’s Singularity thesis

Jof Arnold — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 15:33:38 -0000

I enjoyed this, Nic. I'm with Kurzweil - we have more to lose by betting against it.

Re: Google’s HTML5 initiatives challenge the app and app store paradigm on mobile

Jof Arnold — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 18:32:13 -0000

I love what this is doing for browser speeds; look at the performance of Chrome and Safari now (check out the demos on the Safari HTML5 gallery; realtime 3D hardware-accelerated CSS3 transforms applied to hires video with almost no CPU usage!!!). This ding-dong battle between Google and Apple is so great for entrepreneurs; new tech, multiple good exits to young startups, good monetization and distribution options... To heck with "fragmentation" or whatever people are worried about these days - these are good times!

PS, where's MS in all this? Have they sacked Ballmer yet for the Kin epic fail?

* Clarification... What I'm talking about here is the push towards very fast, hardware-accelerated browsers in order to run fast on mobile devices; that's the key - that's what seems to be driving this way more than as-yet-not-conceived desktop apps. Besides, there's only two browsers in the mobile space and both use webkit... Desktop is a very different beast - browsers all over the place.

Re: Device vs platform and some good signs for Android

Jof Arnold — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 18:11:28 -0000

This is an overstated issue I think - especially for the vast majority of apps that have simple layouts and are mostly rendered client-side. It's also one that'll diminish greatly once things have settled down in the Android space. Android has other challenges, as Nic points out, but this isn't such a major one. My £0.0132

Re: Device vs platform and some good signs for Android

Jof Arnold — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 18:05:32 -0000

From memory, something like 70-ish% of purchases in the first weekend were upgraders. Check AppleInsider, where it's touted as proof iPhone owners love their devices and remain loyal.

Lots of stats in the above article I don't agree with (lies and statistics etc), but ultimately it doesn't matter; whether or not you side with google or apple or simply don't care, it's a great time to be in mobile dev. Thanks Steve!

Another thing, which I added later as an after-thought, the more and more iOS and Android converge on functionality, the less this debate matters... sooner or later people will realise (a point I know Nick likes to make) that ultimately they are just distribution mechanisms - not sure it really matters who wins. If you are a tiny startup does it matter which half of the market you target first? Probably not... you'll end up addressing the other platform when adding the necessary overheads of two platforms is compensated by the ROI (or because 2x customers = 4x viral mechanic, or similar)

I'm also fired up for making the point that Android devs should buy iPhones to shake them into a consumer mindset, but it's late and I've been typing too much already today. Time for some pullups ;)

Re: Apple defends app store approval process and Forrester forecasts strong growth for Android

Jof Arnold — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:31:06 -0000

Not as much of a disadvantage, from a dev's POV, as the already highly-fragmented nature of android dev. See my comment on your facebook update for more thoughts.

Re: Opportunities created by the growth in data

Jof Arnold — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:42:08 -0000

Mobile news-discovery/recommendation is interesting as it solves an interface issue; i.e. browsing from site-to-site is currently a pain on all mobile devices - much better is just to get fed interesting stuff without needing much user input. This is what Nic alludes to, I think.

Re: Opportunities created by the growth in data

Jof Arnold — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:13:01 -0000

I'm still not convinced by the "news stories read by your friends thing". Don't get me wrong - it can work, as we proved with Blog Friends - but I can't imagine it being a big business for the following reasons:
- It's already a feature of twitter and facebook (and google reader, I suppose). A free one at that.
- Almost all the early-stage startups I've met (and at least one funded one!) who are attempting social graph-based filtering fail when it comes to scalability. Directed Edge is one that doesn't; their solution is very sound. Broadersheet looks promising here too.
- People still gravitate to branded sources of information. Despite the millions of blogs in the world, I still get my information from only about 10 sources. E.g. why do people still read Engadget, Techcrunch, BBC etc when there's plenty of other sites out there?

However, managing information overload in the sense of data - CO2 emissions, finances, bills, fuel... now THAT is interesting. And there lies real opportunity to improve people's lives/finances and thus make money.

[Edit: shopping recommendations is pretty potent too, but you need to question whether or not the existing solutions are "good enough". Is the difference in revenue generated by a recommendation system that's 95% instead of 90% accurate worth the investment? I doubt it was for Netflix, for example, unless you know otherwise]

Re: Startup Hotbed Inferiority Complex

Jof Arnold — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 10:20:13 -0000

Depends on how well-connected you already are. If you know loads of influencers and talent, then by all means start in Alaska or (in england) Norfolk (heavens forbid!). But if you don't, then I'd advise spending at least the first 6 months to a year doing startup stuff in a big city; you will gain knowledge and connections 10x faster that way.

Re: Traveling Geeks Are Going to London!

Jof Arnold — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:13:02 -0000

Really excited by this! I hope we Brits give you a great reception!

I didn't realise you guys are in UK all week - are there any opportunities to meet up with the Geeks at a later point? I'm guessing you'll all be mobbed on Sunday - there's a lot of tech startups here! ^_^

@Dvir - It's still gray even *when* there's sunshine! That's why I tend to hang out on beaches on the south coast during the weekends! Lol.

Re: App store wars

Jof Arnold — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:20:36 -0000

You're damn right and raise an interesting point: where's Amazon in all this?

Re: App store wars

Jof Arnold — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:16:09 -0000

Only one that's been successful? What about Nttdocomo, which started this whole app store business about a decade ago, making numerous Japanese devs celebs overnight? What about telenor?

But I'm just nit-picking; you are right of course. And this is great for individual devs, startups and the consumer.

Re: Further Proof Of Apple’s Idiotic Approval Process

Jof Arnold — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 04:56:27 -0000

O.
M.
F.
G.

Re: The future of games: Trip Hawkins, CEO of Digital Chocolate

Jof Arnold — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:06:38 -0000

Makes sense. I didn't get chance to see the video as it wasn't loading for me. I wonder if anyone's ever done a graph showing the points at which subs trump micro-payments trump advertising... Would such a graph even exist?

Re: The future of games: Trip Hawkins, CEO of Digital Chocolate

Jof Arnold — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:24:44 -0000

So not subscriptions then, ala WoW?

Re: What they might be thinking in Cupertino

Jof Arnold — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 16:17:28 -0000

In reality I doubt Apple's going to drop the ball (I'd buy Apple stock if I had the money) but there's incredible opportunity for disaster.

Re hardware, I deleted a section about their Nvidia partnership so I could get it released but it's asking for trouble. The idea of single-sourcing the components of a flagship (or perhaps formerly flagship) product is suicide - especially to a company known to be secretive about serious quality issues. I just don't get it.

Re: Gymfu.com Rocks

Jof Arnold — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:02:39 -0000

Lol! Thanks jMac!

We're working on some new features at the moment which I have a suspicion you'll like a lot :-D

See you at the PowWow