Disqus - Latest Comments for Jim_s

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Jim_s — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 14:03:49 -0000

U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised: Analysis

Anyone who follows the US way of calculating unemployment via the birth / death model knows it's totally inaccurate. This Friday's update should be interesting.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Jim_s — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 18:13:02 -0000

A must read if you are concerned about Bernanke's economic policies.

http://www.counterpunch.org...

Re: And then they'll say they never saw it coming

Jim_s — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 14:54:57 -0000

Realtrolls unite! It's all good. Go out and buy more spec homes and second properties. Since the RE market is so hot, I urge any of the recently unemployed to consider selling RE and taking the 2 day course (assuming you have grade 7), as it is definitely the place to be, Stormy advocates.

The idiot realtor bragging about house sales statistics, accuracy aside (as always is the case), during one of the most government aided financial scams in modern history.

Charles Biderman on BNN discussing how the gov't is solely responsible for the stock market recovery. Is there any aspect of this supposed recovery that isn't manipulated?

Re: Alice in the Wonderland continued....

Jim_s — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 12:37:14 -0000

Of course the markets are manipulated. Put your feet in the shoes an upper management bankster for a moment. If you saw the US (Government Sachs) or GSE's buying up your stock, wouldn't you sell?

I was being sarcastic when I said "what do insiders know that we don't." Manipulation is rampant, obvious, and very unsettling. Inisiders are only trying to retain as much of their net worth as possible, so selling now appears to be the means to do so. The fact that they ARE selling is the key. WHY they are selling is irrelevant. Minimizing ones loss is a basic human reaction.

Re: Alice in the Wonderland continued....

Jim_s — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 16:56:18 -0000

Most Recent Insider Selling to Buying Ratio: 82:1

Sorry, my stats were off a bit.

Re: Alice in the Wonderland continued....

Jim_s — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:00:22 -0000

Home prices falling to the mid $150's is not unreasonable, given the amount of secureless debt in the system. There are some very ominous things happening, that will indirectly kill RE.

-CRE is a ticking time bomb. Economic activity is not better, it is just "less bad". I know a number of small businesses around that are struggling to pay salaries and rent, let alone make 2006-style profits. I also know of many others that simply shut down because the large oil companies trimmed their budgets.

-Unemployment is still trending higher, but again is "less bad". And that's a good thing? Hidden in the numbers that you don't read about are the record amount of "extended benefits" applications, meaning people are not finding work, just trying to find additional means to get by.

-Stock market valuations are overpriced by at least 25%. Earnings have been soaring for 2 main reasons: Layoffs, and invetory buildups. These are simply balance sheet adjustments that make the profiitability of a company look better than it really is. Going forward, the consumer is the driver, and so far 2009 has seen the consumer back off substantially out of fear. 2010 will be the same.

-The ratio of insider selling to insider buying, in the S&P 500, now sits at about 80:1. What do all the insiders know that you and I don't? What do they all think is going to happen? After all, why sell if this really is "a bull market"?

The US economy is no longer free. It is an economy totally controlled by Obamas cronies. There is no way housing is sustainable, yet they'll try. There is no way that unemployment is falling, yet you'll hear otherwise.

Yesterdays market ramp on the first day of 2010 is so obviously the result of US liquidity, regardless of the actuall 'buyers'. Also, one other key comment. 80% of the stock market gains since August have been done in after hours trading, while doing so at record low volumes. Total Ponzi.

Imagine that all this effort has come as a result of the desire to sell more mortgages; to sell more houses; to make more money lending; all under the premise that, at some point down the road, someone more stupid will buy and assume both the inflated value and risk of your home or second spec home. You'd be an absolute fool not to think that at some point, a price ceiling would hit.

Fun to watch, anyway.

Re: Alice in the Wonderland continued....

Jim_s — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 15:13:23 -0000

ASK YOUR REAL ESTATE AGENT, BANKER, MORTGAGE BROKER, OR BUILDER WHAT THEIR ADVICE COSTS IF YOU TAKE IT

Regardless of what it costs, all you'll get in reply is bullshit. The group is nothing more than a taxpayer relief make-work project, in existence and pimped by the Canadian Government to hopefully stop the decline in house prices, as the bubbled up homeowner balance sheet is way more attractive than the real one.

Reality sucks, don't it.

Re: Yet another voice on Bubble

Jim_s — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:05:01 -0000

Interesting view of the US written by an American:

Craftsmen who used to flock to this country to fulfill the needs of a manufacturing base flock here no more. “Made in the USA” used to mean something. It meant quality. It was the definition of industrial capitalism. But now through the wonders of globalization we have exported our craftsmanship through an outflow of jobs to China and India as we turned everyone in the USA into real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and web designers – a perfect playground for bankers to ply their craft, lending money in every creative manner both thinkable, and unthinkable. “Made in the USA” has been reduced to the status of punch-line – synonymous only with “Mortgage Backed Securities” and other “Toxic Derivatives.”

Re: Yet another voice on Bubble

Jim_s — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:00:29 -0000

Some comedy for the day. Here's an exerpt:

Lin, a computer programmer in his late 20s, has watched the ups and downs, and then ups again, of Vancouver’s housing market from his rented apartment. Now, with the economy in repair mode and mortgage rates still near record lows, he’s eager to take the plunge into the city’s condo market. He admits prices are higher than he’d like, but believes he can easily cover the mortgage payments even if interest rates start to rise. But when asked whether he will have enough left over at the end of the month to save for retirement, he chuckles. He wasn’t saving much before, either. “This way,” he says, “I’ll be forced to save.”

Oh look everyone! A kid in his 20's has seen all there is to see in housing ups and downs and is now confident that things will improve.

Truly laughable. Any bets on when the market turns that a guy like this will honor his debt obligations?

Re: Yet another voice on Bubble

Jim_s — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:32:15 -0000

Yes, I agree that housing is unaffordable now. Glad you said it. Sorry to disappoint you, I'm not a renter.

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Re: Yet another voice on Bubble

Jim_s — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:27:28 -0000

Yes, I blather about risks because those with vested interests in keeping the economic fallacy alive have only their own personal financial interests at stake, such as you.

I could care less if house prices rise, fall, flatline, crash & burn, or head to the moon. My gut tells me that they will crash though, because if this economy was so strong and robust, 8% unemployment in Canada would not be real, banks would not need bailouts, nor would several nations - some of which were built on the "peak oil" fallacy just as Japans' bubble was built on the "limited land" fallacy. The economy and, in particular housing, is in trouble.

Re: Yet another voice on Bubble

Jim_s — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:48:37 -0000

I believe all gov't shills - NOT. The stuff they sputter has one aim: To instill confidence in the general voting pop. and market. Realtrolls try do the same, although are much less respected.

The US propaganda machine is in high gear now. Obama's approval rating is diving, so the Noble Peace Prize lands on his lap. Bernanke is facing tough opposition for reinstatement, so is named Time Magazines "Person of the Year".

This billboard says it all.

Greece is going bankrupt, Abu-Dhabi can't pay it's bills, and China is 1,000 times the trouble of Abu-Dhabi, according to this fund manager. These problems are global with global ramifications once The Great Coverup is exposed.

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Re: Yet another voice on Bubble

Jim_s — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:43:57 -0000

The recent rise in Canadian housing prices is a direct result of the Bernanke plan to devalue the US $, flood the banks with liquidity, and lower borrowing rates. The result is an asset bubble the world has never seen before. Canada and Europe will fall victim to the US "strong dollar" (ya right) policy and the recovery will be that much more muted once this is over. We can only hide the accounting fraud by lowering carrying rates for so long.

Re: Real estate surge no ‘blip,' TD says

Jim_s — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:24:24 -0000

“THERE IS NO MEANS OF AVOIDING THE FINAL COLLAPSE OF A BOOM BROUGHT ABOUT BY CREDIT EXPANSION. THE ALTERNATIVE IS ONLY WHETHER THE CRISIS SHOULD COME SOONER AS THE RESULT OF A VOLUNTARY ABANDONMENT OF FURTHER CREDIT EXPANSION, OR LATER AS A FINAL AND TOTAL CATASTROPHE OF THE CURRENCY SYSTEM INVOLVED.”

Ludwig von Mises – Austrian Economist (1881- 1973)

You've been waxing the wrong side of your skis, stormy.

Re: Weekend Open Thread

Jim_s — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:09:11 -0000

It seems rather logical that as wage deflation spreads, over capacity builds, and consumer demand continues to drop (as they pertain to the overall economy) that rents and asset prices will follow.

We have bubbles being reinflated all over the world today because gov'ts can't accept the alternative. We are in a massive dollar carry-trade bubble right now. RE, ditto.

This won't end well. There is a watershed event that will happen eventually. The lies and accounting fraud coverups cannot continue because losses are deepening, particularly in the CDS and MBS markets.

You will see very soon that the economy we perceive as "real" and prices you view as "market", are nothing more than a joke.

Go ahead... buy RE today. But one needs to always think who the next buyer of your home is going to be and what potential problems may arise. I can say from first hand experience that selling in a difficult market or under adverse economic conditions puts a sting in your craw that you never forget.

Just my $.02.

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Re: Growing economy, more jobs and other lies

Jim_s — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:27:37 -0000

Of course, Alberta is different, eh?

Re: Growing economy, more jobs and other lies

Jim_s — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:05:07 -0000

Good post Atzi. I doubt you'll get a realtor to come on here and admit anything other than continued shallow sales pitches. Mostly what you'll see is provocation and empty legal threats to save a fragile image.

On another note, inflationists have a flawed and fatal argument in front of them, simply thinking that Ben dropping dollars on debt ridden institutions constitutes inflation.

I suggest the following read.

Credit contraction dwarfs debt monetization, leaving us in a state of net contraction, even though we have just experienced a large rally lasting months, which should have been the most favourable condition for reigniting lending if such a thing were in fact possible. I would argue that it is simply not possible and that deflation is inevitable.

The scale of the problem has been temporarily concealed by a market rally and the shovelling of tens of trillions of dollars of taxpayer’s money into a giant black hole of credit destruction. This has done nothing to reignite lending, but the temporary (and entirely irrational) resurgence of confidence has restored a measure of liquidity. As that confidence evaporates with the end of the rally, that liquidity will also disappear.

Re: And the secret recipe for continued housing strength is...

Jim_s — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:25:49 -0000

Subprime back with a vengeance?

http://www.housingwire.com/...

At this point, and with the economy so heavily manipulated by gov't liquidity and intervention, almost anything is believable.

Re: And the secret recipe for continued housing strength is...

Jim_s — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:15:59 -0000

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence number for the month of October hit 47.7, a major decline from the September number of 53.4 and over a 5 point differential from the expected reading of 53.1. The data series has trended flat since hitting a high of 54.80 in May and has recently accelerated its pick up. As a reminder a reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth. We are nowhere close and in fact getting worse by the month with unemployment, commodity inflation and wage deflation taking their toll on US consumers.

Re: And the secret recipe for continued housing strength is...

Jim_s — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 12:29:33 -0000

No kidding. Yet there is always reference to "the big picture".

Hasn't the big picture been deleveraging, credit tightening, and deflation? Printing dollars in and of itself is not inflation.

Liquidity thrown at banks has been staggering. CNBC had Art Cashin on last Thurs who commented that 2 years ago, banks had $1.2 Billion in reserves. Last year they had $2.5 Billion in reserves. This year.... a staggering $824 Billion in reserves.

You can throw all the liquidity at the banks and print all the fiat you want, nothing changes if banks don't lend, people don't qualify, or desire for credit subsides.

We are in a huge deflationary period that no one wants to talk about because 90% of the world relies on credit. If deflation continues, credit will tighten further and CPI and PPI will fall harder.

I think gold will continue its emotional ride, could go higher, could go lower. House prices, though, have to fall because credit terms cannot get any better and qualifications for buyers are tightening on behalf of the banks' aversion to risk.

Buying a house because YOU THINK inflation will come is one thing. Buying a house post bubble IN THE MIDDLE of a deflationary period is quite another.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Jim_s — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 12:52:15 -0000

A very good read from Kessler Investments on inflation and why it's not going to occur.

On page 4:
Moreover, market participants who were not economic adults during the anomalous high inflation years tend to conflate limited above-trend inflation of a percentage point or two with the threat of runaway double-digit inflation.We reiterate here that a number of factors which drove up inflation as the baby boomers reached maturity have disappeared or are no longer so influential. These include: the effects of a sharp bulge in population as the first baby boomers started earning, spending, and competing for consumer goods...enlargement of the workforce from increased participation of women (whether as two-income households or independently in new household formation) driving per capita earned income higher...the collective bargaining power of a unionized workforce being proportionately very much larger than that of today and negotiating contracts with automatic raises tied to the CPI...an employment culture of stable workforces and mutual loyalty between employees and employers that embedded annual cost of living increases and punished “job hopping”...a comparative absence of outsourcing...and finally, a far smaller and slower ability to ship manufacturing production and service abroad than exists today (at the minimum, think of current competition from overseas call centers run by banks and technology companies and electronic delivery of the output of knowledge workers of every sort.) The accelerators that once boosted feedback in vicious inflation cycles are not in place.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Jim_s — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:46:08 -0000

September US unemployment figures released today. Horrible.

Yet, hidden on page 5, paragraph 2 is this little goodie that you won't see any MSM news on.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm employment of 824,000

824,000 unemployed that were previously (woopsy-daisy) missed!!!!

The stock market will keep ramping as long as mafia boys Ben and Obama keep throwing trillions at it. Extemely confusing for most folks who, despite working hard, at the end of every month are strapped and yet see the stock market and bankers record historic gains.

Then when it crumbles everyone will be "shocked" and "alarmed" at the "unexpected" turn of events.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Jim_s — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:49:04 -0000

Canada's stalled economy 'a shocker'

Only if you're highly levered and live in a bubble.

Re: Alberta sans Natural Gas

Jim_s — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 11:52:46 -0000

"This inventory has yet to hit the market, but it will. So pundits that get excited about two or three months of Case-Shiller data are spending too much time looking out the back window. More deflation is coming in residential real estate — this bear market in housing ain’t over yet. Remember, homes that are foreclosed typically go on to the market at discounts ranging between 10% and 50%." - David Rosenberg

Re: Bad Karma- Consequences catch up with you, eventually

Jim_s — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:17:20 -0000

Not all RE bears are renters. Of course, there are a few who overnight are now batting for the other team (Radley, Bearclaw)simply because they have their own eavestroughs to repair, but for the most part any sane individual who has seen these cycles before understands the position housing is in.

Bottom line: The average house is NOT affordable for the average person. We went from one family incomes many years ago, to two family incomes, to 25% down, to 15% down, to 5% down, to zero % down, so what's next? Pay me to live in a house? Lending standards have decreased and household incomes have increased (to a lesser extent). That is why prices are so high and out of reach with reality.

BTW... I've owned a few homes over the years, as I know others have on here. Owning is good. I would recommend it, BUT timing needs to be right. Since 2002, timing sucks. This thing is about to blow. Advice or no advice, anyone that buys now seriously risks their asset devaluing considerably.

But I could care less what others do, really. If someone wants to buy gold, sit on a hump of cash, or triple dip into their LOC, economic reality doesn't and won't respect individual whims. Housing is over priced and will fall. That is the reality that is going to unfold.

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