Disqus - Latest Comments for Erik78

Re: Bulls need a strong day tomorrow or....

Erik78 — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:59:23 -0000

Nice work there...didn't even catch that trend line myself

http://erikmarketview.blogs...

Re: Issue Advance : Volume Advance

Erik78 — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 19:27:44 -0000

Mcain, yes I am still holding SRS, actually added more today on its gapdown at the open.

Nick, no rally in reits buddy. I explained why I thought they were by far the best sector to short for the new years re-distribution. Again this was posted mid day on THURS, prior to the sell off, It was not a swing signal.

Re: The Peak of Asset Mania and The Final Bubble.

Erik78 — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 12:42:12 -0000

1. Repubs tank it on purpose to try and get more seats and win 2012.
(there are 2 ways to any story)

2. That is a phrase the media likes to say, it's a farce.

3. As damp mentioned,they lag and as denninge explains, we do not have the leverage of o7.

4. Jim Rodgers will be correct. Up or down commodities outperfom companies

5. Double dip here we come

Re: The Peak of Asset Mania and The Final Bubble.

Erik78 — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 11:17:47 -0000

Selling tlt calls might be better, to collect theta as well

Re: Issue Advance : Volume Advance

Erik78 — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 19:51:26 -0000

Your are absolutly right,

it is misleading, in it's most objective (purest form).

My major intent was to draw attention to the +72% for the day, as that has been a pretty GOOD indicator for if the market rallies or falls. (very rarely has there been a day in a while where it is up that high, and when it is.......once the ratio stops rising, the market typically follows suit).

I put this up as fast as i could, as I posted the link to it on yahoo on the message board, I had mentioned that its up huge for the day, and that was very strange and I had seen sell off's from that kinda 1 day % change.

However, yep I should of put the circle on the DAILY +72%, as well as annotated that on the chart. Again, this was done 44 min prior to the close and I had mentioned this to those that I sent it to at that time. I was posting this to try to indicate a short/immediate term move.

If you notice, this was posted 44 minutes BEFORE the close by the way, while the dow was down only about 40-50pts at the time. (...........44 minutes later, we closed down 120 for the day. I very rarely ever post during the trading day. I wanted to get this opinion out during that day. (thurs)

Point: if any "trend" or "t/a tool" has lets say a 2/3rds probability to be correct from your observations, then look for when it signals it on BOTH the longer term AND the shorter term time frames at the same time, to increase your odds.

thank you (seriously) for mentioning this. As I am planning to add the same chart but have it in a 60minute 2 month version as well, to zoom in, and look to trade in its direction and focus on what I am ezactly reffering to when ALL time frames are "favorable" at the same time.

Re: Stick a Fork In It

Erik78 — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 18:59:48 -0000

the issue: volume ratio seems to agree dano

http://erikmarketview.blogs...

Re: Tightroap Walking week............

Erik78 — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 17:21:14 -0000

THe trend is reversing....:o) see today IYR and SRS both up...

Re: Tightroap Walking week............

Erik78 — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 23:43:00 -0000

Thesis selection for SRS as the vehicle, is that I believe the REITS have been running the hardest this month on short covering.

Coming into 09, i suspect many funds were long lets say AAPL, GOOG, etc...and short the likes of SPG. (I mean the "waiting of the CRE implosion" was almost fad. So I sure its overweight on ports as a short hedge for their longs.

Just as during this DEC....notice how SKF has held up pretty good, however SRS has been HAMMERED!! That goes w/ the short covering on the reits. If i were a fund manager, i sure would not want to show SPG short on my books for 09, if i didn't have too.

I dont think anyone is buying reits here at all. Shorts are covering, reits have have a VERY strong dec.....basically the STRONGEST of any sector pretty much.

So in terms of what people are in, its hard to say. people are overweight stocks AND overweiht fixed income at the same time, so its wild times. When things hit bottom, institutions ran to fixed income. That why this year has been so epic, b/c the returns of some fixed income has been like parabolic bullish equity like. I suspect that equities get fat trimmed FIRST as that lowers risk, then fixed income later, contrary to many.

I was thinking of VIX calls, however the volume worries me at times.

Also w/ the SRS, i did a reits chart like a few weeks back, and its even more stretched now. If you look SPG has gone parabolic.....as have the larger caps. HOWEVER, the smaller caps have not recovered near as much. Since SRS , IYR, URE, etc are based off market cap, that rubber band is also stretched.

IE: If SPG looked like it had more room to run UP, but the IYR as a whole looked kinda bearish, then....SRS is not the best play (why, b/c SPG is the largest % of the srs)

contrary, if SPG looked like a super short, but IYR just looked "ok", then SRS is very attractive.

The higher the market cap REIT, the more it looks like it has room to fall. Go check out IYR and its holdings and compare the top 5 to the bottom 5, and see....

jmo, fwiw

Re: Looking at the REITS

Erik78 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:34:54 -0000

yea, i think we do NOT sell off, pullback, correct...etc...till 2010

Re: Looking at the REITS

Erik78 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:33:46 -0000

u use that line graph/chart via the drys website.

u have a good ticker/tracker for the BDI?
thanks if so.

Re: Looking at the REITS

Erik78 — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:18:14 -0000

interesting...

Funds, money managers and individuals who have large gains this year, (after being clobbered in 08)....i dunno but i have a feeling they would PREFER to delay paying capital gains tax by 12 months, by simply waiting till 2010 to "take profits" hence sliding it to next years books.

Re: GOOG update

Erik78 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 23:26:25 -0000

me or dano?

Re: GOOG update

Erik78 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 23:26:02 -0000

just to be clear, i am not saying goog can not go to 900.....
I have no idea if it hits 900 or 300 first. Im just looking at it from a chart perspective.

Is it correct or safe to assume you (daneric), sees the move down as an ABC, and we are now in the process of wave 3 up (ie wave 5 taking us to "new highs"?? just curious

Re: GOOG update

Erik78 — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:12:17 -0000

really? I have no speculation on it......I will just play the signal if/when/AFTER it comes, b/c of it's accuracy in the past.

Re: News Time!

Erik78 — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 01:58:21 -0000

well put....

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 Nov

Erik78 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:55:16 -0000

anemic volume tends to favor the BULLS

and dec, especially late dec is anemic volume....

fwiw

if/WHEN volume drys up, this thing is going to get even sloppier again

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 Nov

Erik78 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:50:12 -0000

define extreme......

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 Nov

Erik78 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:49:38 -0000

w/ respect to prechter...whos that guy that "nailed the bottom" to the day, oh yea doug Kass..

follow him on twitter...lol you will see he has been calling for a monster down move since spx 875!!!!

i dunno, mixed feeling on end of year / jan effects this year.

TYPICALLY...since late dec is such anemic volume that usually favors the BULLS

I have heard of the tax cut repeal scenario, but JMO i think that's more lipstick than pig (kinda like the overcooked "stress tests")...which were not even really anything of substance, but way over fear mongered...

the only engine running this train is the USD....
best guess might be to just chart USD/SPX (the ratio) and watch when the juice starts to loose steam like on a WEEKLY chart....
when the engine gets tired of that fuel (ie falling dollar), then that could be the big sign. only way to see it best it to chart the ratio

you have a count for the SPX/$USD ratio danno??? (put a : in stockcharts diving the 2)
.....if your taking requests that is. :o)

crazy market...dont see how anyone but scalpers is consistant these days

Re: The Bearish Case

Erik78 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:48:53 -0000

w/ respect to prechter...whos that guy that "nailed the bottom" to the day, oh yea doug Kass..

follow him on twitter...lol you will see he has been calling for a monster down move since spx 875!!!!

i dunno, mixed feeling on end of year / jan effects this year.

TYPICALLY...since late dec is such anemic volume that usually favors the BULLS

you have a count for the SPX/$USD ratio danno??? (put a : in stockcharts diving the 2)
.....if your taking requests that is. :o)

crazy market...dont see how anyone but scalpers is consistant these days

Re: The Bearish Case

Erik78 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:42:25 -0000

true, bears are scared shitless.....

Re: The Dollar Chart

Erik78 — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 22:48:13 -0000

this fits in nicely to WIndow dressing (end of qtr here)...

everyone could very well be trying to paint their portolofios the prettiest they can here at the finish line.

come oct 1st,,,IMO...the dollar is going to squeeze like its on roids...
http://erikmarketview.blogs...

Re: P3 Trading Strategies

Erik78 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:10:24 -0000

dont forget, shorting FAS, BGU and the likes, for the long haul.

all the levered etf's lose, all of them

ESPECIALLY true even more so if you are happening to get the direction of the market correct as well.

Re: 2 must watch items this week (Head n Shoulders & Jobs data surprise)

Erik78 — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:20:50 -0000

i wont want to be short on that specific day, i know that.

Re: VIX leads, Gold follows

Erik78 — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:20:06 -0000

It might hit 35 on the next push up. Its forming a megaphone pattern here now, with higher highs, yet the SAME lows. But in terms of breaking 30 and remaining over 30, i dont think that is going to happen in the immediate distant future. Dec definatly will drain the vix. Just like last year, i plan on buying vix calls in late Dec....

Re: VIX leads, Gold follows

Erik78 — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:20:05 -0000