Disqus - Latest Comments for EricDavis

Re: E-minis

EricDavis — Tue, 13 Apr 2010 00:08:00 -0000

This was probably the swing High!

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 March

EricDavis — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 19:13:19 -0000

That is it, she is done... I'm not sure about your Ponzi wave.... but.. that should be the swing high on the daily

Re: Weekend Charts and Stuff

EricDavis — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 04:59:43 -0000

Extremes tend to be emotional!

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 March

EricDavis — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 22:20:03 -0000

too bad it didn't work out....LOL

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 March

EricDavis — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 23:53:29 -0000

when a triangle isn't "Clean", meaning the swings are Rough, it usually means it falls short of it's target. You can fall back to other target calculations like 1123 or 1124.50 ish.

Re: Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 March

EricDavis — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 23:52:38 -0000

delete

Re: 02/26/2010 Market Recap: Multiple Cycles Due

EricDavis — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 18:45:07 -0000

You understand that, if there is a new high, it invalidates this as an intermediate correction?

Re: ....About That Options Timing | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:27:30 -0000

The only thing more consistent in the market than "Trend follow" is "Sell Trend Following to the hicks"

I'll go blow the dust off Connors, and check it out.

Re: ....About That Options Timing | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:26:45 -0000

oops

Re: ....About That Options Timing | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:58:54 -0000

I think, that is a 20 year old study out of the Connors book, And out of this Epiphany, one might conclude that; the market consolidates, then makes a move.

I guess market participants think that is "Rocket Science"

Re: Not Quite as Comcastic | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 23:57:14 -0000

Could be a Graceful Exit, Seems to me that CNBC is working on a "Fox News-Sensationalism" Model. Develop their new versions of Glen Beck, and Hanity to Drive their "Brand" into the new Century.

Pity the fool who wants investment news/information. Hard to think that they could get even further off the rails.

Give it a few years and everyone will switch to bloomberg!

Re: A Long December? | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:40:09 -0000

Is that a "higher low".... on all that bullishness, I thought we were going to the moon....

Re: Some Monday Actives | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:37:03 -0000

I was speaking in the hypothetical, as an illustration of game theory. I'm sure most people are just doing random crap, or go to all the trouble to "analyze the odds". Then there are people who realize that many people either; are doing random shit, and then there are those Analyzing the odds!

Re: Some Monday Actives | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:34:01 -0000

So, then he realizes they will adjust to a less obvious 3rd down play, and adjust. And he then tries to exploit their adjustment.

and that is game theory.... not "on 2nd down, 30% run-70%pass"... that stuff is first order.

Re: Some Monday Actives | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:38:34 -0000

I wonder if the other coaches in the League will think Belicheck will get his coaches to think about being more aggressive on 4th, and prepare for it on Game day.

I wonder if Belicheck will think about the compensations that the other league coaches will make to his more aggressive 4th down tactics, and have an answer for it.

or if he will just fuck around with numerical analysis of "What he should do on 4th down"

Re: Some Monday Actives | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:25:09 -0000

Just a little follow through on a game theory discussion a few weeks ago. Maybe, I was not so much soliciting advice, but very possible I was giving some, without telling anyone what to do.

Re: Some Monday Actives | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:34:46 -0000

Well, I have never seen the market so bullish! Not in the 5 years, I've watched sentiment.

So... Straight up, or straight down!

either that or it will fuck with me and go sideways.

Re: 10/16/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

EricDavis — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:46:56 -0000

I know.... Just stick with your conspiracy theories.... and "Failed TA"... as Opposed to people being wrong.

occam's razor.

Re: 10/16/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

EricDavis — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:27:13 -0000

Who won This .... ME???? No worries, I'll just take the money I make as my reward!

Re: Game Theory and Sports and You | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:07:43 -0000

You should have said "STFU" you dick!!

I do want to say that, the guy who wrote that economist story misunderstands Game theory, Economics, minimax, Science, baseball, and football. It reminds me of when USA today writes about quantum physics. There is a reason he/she is a journalist.

You are right, about what is being presented is far-fetched.... Just as "Efficient Market Hypotisis" is far Fetched.

but if you notice there is a parallel there, EMH is far-fetched, and that games are played "Statisticly" is far fetched.

There is no way to go into it in a blog post, since game theory is a university degree field.

But realize, there are those players who try and throw the ball Random.(I want to point out that nobody plays random, Research suggests that they only think they do.)

Then those who have a Strategy.

Then there are those who know that some people play random.
and some people who play strategies.

I'm not sure it needs to be said "that there are a thousand variables, especially in multi person games of both physical and mental skill."

So the question is.... How is your opponent playing? Is the pitcher trying to throw random, or does he have a strategy and how do you use this to your advantage while playing.

The single Biggest mistake in the article is that Game theory is about how people "Should play", when it's about how people "do play", or theories about improved ideas about ways "To play" as in the case of John Nash. But it's about the Theory(s).

To be direct just as "Fishing" is not called "Catching", "Game theory" is not; "game playing" or "Game winning".Just as when I come back from fishing the question is; "how many did you catch?", when that question is irrelevant to what I was doing. The same misunderstanding exists in game theory. It's not about winning but about, theories in how games are played.

Like I mentioned, some nuances in life require higher order thinking.

It's rare to find anyone to discuss good game theory with, just as in economics... we spend so much time arguing Adams Vs Marx... when both of them are 300 year old ideas. that have both good points and bad, and point out that neither are the "utopia" they each promised. But then again WTF were we doing thinking that people who presented ideas like "Philosopher Kings about Utopias".. were going to be wrong.

But just as there are still people arguing evolution vs creationism, there is no reason to sit around and re-invent a wheel.

and woman... don't get me started!!!

Re: Game Theory and Sports and You | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:18:32 -0000

If I suggested that most people

A. are too stupid for game theory
B. Think they understand it, but actually understand it as well as they understand woman.

The problem is it requires Higher order thinking, which is inherently beyond 90% of people, or even worse it's Like Common sense, which for some reason seems to be beyond Common people, and some very smart people. (Even Thomas Pain's original "common sense Pamphlet required 4 volumes.(side joke about glen Beck))

Not only does one need to understand what is being explained, but then how to apply it.

So, Not to be insulting but your take on game theory is ... Second order.

But I think you could work on it and improve.

Re: 10/16/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

EricDavis — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:24:37 -0000

Good stuff,

I'm not a believer in god or manipulation. What I do believe is that people don't want to admit when they are wrong. And about 90 % of what goes for TA is just Miserable statistical work From people who can barley do Algebra, and need to take a few statistics classes, and stop staring at backward looking indicators.

Any Standard Analysis, would suggest that if you have an 8 or 9 Standard Deviation Event, the rebound/retrace would also be an 8-9 standard deviation event. 6-7 SD is the Mean, So when all the dopes are looking at 3 deviations and looking for a pivot. It's foolishness, but only slightly more foolish than thinking that it's "manipulation"

So, I missed it and we made a new high. Without going into market structure, it very much depends on what you are talking about when you say we have hit some kind of "top". Because I'd also say, it's unlikely we will breach 666.

but we will see, maybe i'm still wrong...

and in my defense Cobra cursed it with his sunday call. LOL

Re: 10/16/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

EricDavis — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 14:46:15 -0000

My TA against yours... Hopefully you realize I have a tenancy toward factiousness!

Tops are made when nobody can possibly imagine that it's a top!

That is why they are tops!

Re: 10/16/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

EricDavis — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:19:25 -0000

How is the raging Bullishness over here?

Breakout!!!!

Was it all finally too much for all the Bears to take?

Definitely not a top!

intermediate up... ok... I think that indicator may need some work.

But we may not realize it for a couple weeks.

LOL!

Re: Workin’ It | Blog - Daily Options Report

EricDavis — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:06:00 -0000

Computer Programmers have a saying," Garbage in garbage out". 3000 sounds like you don't know what you are looking at. Other than that you are looking at sectors and rotations, Leaders and laggards.

Sounds like someone just wants to show how big their Pee Pee is.

Of course, there is a point about a work ethic; If you can't be smarter, work harder.

But you don't win the game by reading 4K charts...