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Re: What's Next for the Green Economy?

EcoConnoisseur — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:37:38 -0000

More Answers from Panelist, Glenn Croston, Ph.D.

www.EcoInvestmentClub.com

November 5, 2008

“What’s Next for the Green Economy”

Glenn Croston is the author of “75 Green Businesses You Can Start to Make Money and Make a Difference”, laying out green business opportunities for a broad range of people to pursue (www.75GreenBusinesses.com). He’s also the green business blogger for Fast Company, and the founder of Starting Up Green (www.StartingUpGreen.com) helping entrepreneurs build successful green businesses.

Q: Will consumers stick with green during tough times?

Green consumers are diverse, and there responses to the economy will be too.

Why were they buying green in the first place?

For affluent LOHAS who have money and have buying green for years, they are not going to stop now.

If green was an expensive luxury a person can no longer afford, then maybe not. Being green does not mean a business or product is immune from the economy.
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If green provides added value to an already strong product, then it should do well. All other things being equal, people will chose the green product if costs are similar. More mainstream products may fall in this category.
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If green helps people and businesses save money, it should do well. Examples include cost effective lighting, air duct repairs, weatherstripping, insulation, or power purchase agreements for solar. Many of these investments pay for themselves.

One way to look at the current economy is that when things are tough, businesses need to get tough as well, getting lean to survive. Investing in green may be more important than ever now in areas that provide demonstrable savings by getting more efficient with fuel, energy, and other resources.

Q: Are high nonrenewable energy prices the only way to shift to renewable energy, or are we toast?

Economics drives (almost) everything. Environmentalists were telling us all to drive smaller cars for decades, with little success when oil was cheap. As soon as gas hit $4.50 a gallon, there were millions of new environmentalists driving less and buying smaller cars. A few people will change their ways because it’s the right thing. Most people change when it hits their wallet.

But we are not at the mercy of the oil market though - We are not toast. No matter what the market does to the price of oil, smart policy can still make a difference and drive economics in the right direction. Government plays a key role here. By putting a price on carbon, we help shift the economy away from coal and toward renewable energy. By putting a cost on oil and requiring increased fuel efficiency, we move drivers, cars, and all associated technologies toward a consistent long term direction that helps everybody. It may not be easy, but it can be done, and has been done by others. Europe and Japan did not abandon fuel efficiency when oil was cheap, and as a result they are today way ahead of us. We need to learn the value of consistent long term policy.

Q: Is investment in renewable energy too risky right now because of the low price of oil?

Oil won’t stay low forever – it can’t. What happens to oil in the short term is hard or impossible to predict, but the long term trend is absolutely predictable. Oil is a finite resource, getting harder to develop, and developing economies will continue to grow and use more in the years and decades ahead. I can’t say how long oil will stay at its present price, or when it will head back up again - nobody knows. But it will. If you are in investments for the long term, then betting against fossil fuels and in favor of renewable energy does not seem that risky.

The long term drivers are:

Rising price of oil and natural gas (they will rise again)
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Improving technology and decreasing costs of renewables
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Climate change legislation (still likely)
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Renewable energy mandates, portfolio standards (state and federal level)

Some renewable energy stocks have really been hammered lately, worse than the rest of the market. Vestas, the Danish wind company, was recently down 75%, not because of anything the company did, but assumptions about the impact of financing on its ability to deliver projects. Unless they go belly up, if someone has the patience and can take risk, this might be the best time to invest. Warren Buffett recently said “When everybody is greedy, be afraid. When everyone is afraid, be greedy”. Maybe that sums it up.

Q: T. Boone Pickens promises the biggest transfer of wealth in history … Is he right or full of oil?

Mr. Pickens talks about the transfer of wealth that is already happening, hundreds of billions from the US to oil producing countries. By developing renewable energy here in the US we can keep more of that here to benefit our own economy. He’s certainly right about that. Energy is a multi-trillion dollar industry that is ripe for change. We can either have orderly change, a managed transition, or we can drive this oil-driven economy as fast as possible and run off the cliff. We have to figure out still if we have the foresight and will to choose one path over the other.

Q: Does carbon regulation tackling climate change create jobs or help the economy?

Some feel that action on climate change is an expensive proposition and is unnecessary or not worth it, but taking action on climate change is one of the biggest business opportunities of our time. Like it or not, the data on climate change is there and it’s not good. See the Stern report. If we keep on doing nothing, which is about what has happened so far, a few decades down the road the cost is far greater than taking action.

Or we can take on this opportunity. We need a unified global approach to climate change, with the US playing a leadership role. Rather than dragging our feet, what if we step up to the challenge and see it as an opportunity? What if our businesses are developing new technologies for cheap renewable energy and low carbon living, and selling this to everyone else? Putting a price on carbon and allowing the market to get to work finding solutions rewards innovation and drives the economy in the right direction. Leaving things as they are, depleting natural capital and destroying ecosystem services, puts an unimaginable burden on future generations, an incalculably high cost down the road, far greater than the investment that we can make today to make it happen. The cost of solutions is exaggerated by the opponents of action, and the cost of inaction underestimated. If we take action and become leaders, the world will beat a path to our door, creating jobs, companies, etc. That path sounds like a good one to me.

Re: Obama – the mindset tips.

EcoConnoisseur — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:32:28 -0000

I believe he (Obama) needs to display “wisdom” and focus on the big 3. One may have to go down and the rise of a green player to replace the fallen may need to be his biggest move! If I was an advisor to President Obama, I would encourage him to not bailout anyone-else (excluding the middle class) and focus on transitioning from the traditional economic giants to investing in the new green giants! One of my own favorite quotes is:

“I happen to deeply agree with the wisdom of Tom Friedman (that we cannot consume of way out of this mess and “Have you ever been to a revolution where nobody gets hurt?”). The fact is that the current economic conditions will cause a lot of companies to close their doors (websites too), and they will die off altogether due to lack of understanding the competitive (innovative) landscape. Just look at Detroit and the Big 3 for example! Those that will fight to stay alive will need to figure out — What’s Next?

I believe that the New Green Economy will include the Rise of Green Real Estate Markets paired with the continued success of Cleantech, Clean Energy Markets, and large scale shifts toward Clean Transportation, and the Greening of the IT Industries (plus a fourth quarter of record investment!!), which will lead to a boom in “American Made” Green Collar Jobs and the creation of new wealth. The trick is: “who will get it right??” Execution makes all the difference for most of these opportunities and green investors need to pay more attention to the items that management claim they can achieve.” - Yeves Perez, Founder of EcoInvestmentClub.com - Nov 2008

See more on talk on Fast Company:
http://www.fastcompany.com/...

Re: Fuzzy Math? Some See Unrealistic Numbers in Obama 5M Green Jobs Promise

EcoConnoisseur — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 17:57:22 -0000

He (Obama) needs to display “wisdom” and focus on the big 3. One may have to go down and the rise of a green player to replace the fallen may need to be his biggest move! If I was an advisor to President Obama, I would encourage him to not bailout anyone-else (excluding the middle class) and focus on transitioning from the traditional economic giants to investing in the new green giants! One of my own favorite quotes is:

See more on talk on Fast Company:
http://www.fastcompany.com/...

Re: Conventional Wisdom Will Be Wrong

EcoConnoisseur — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:08:42 -0000

I don't know if anyone else would agree with me, however I happen to deeply agree with the conventional wisdom of Tom Friedman (that we cannot consume of way out of this mess and "Have you ever been to a revolution where nobody gets hurt?"). Hello... The Big Three in Detroit! The fact is that the current economic conditions will cause a lot of companies to close their doors (websites too), and lots will die off altogether due to lack of understanding (underestimating) the competitive landscape. Those that will fight to stay alive will need to figure out — What's Next?

I believe that the New Green Economy will include the Rise of Green Real Estate Markets paired with the continued success of Cleantech, Clean Energy Markets, and large scale shifts toward Clean Transportation, and the Greening of the IT Industries (plus a fourth quarter of record investment!!), which will lead to a boom in "American Made" Green Collar Jobs and the creation of new wealth. The trick is: "who will get it right??" Execution makes all the difference
for most of these opportunities and green investors need to pay more attention to the items that management claim they can achieve.

I will be honored to reference this post in my opening speech for a panel discussion to Eco Investors around the world called, "What's Next For The Green Economy??", especially this line; "It's time to cut exposures, leave equities for now, expect 2009 earnings estimates to get cut a lot more, you can't buy this market right now, etc, etc." The Eco Investment Club is hosting this Special Panel discussion for the very reason of strategy and action for here on out (Nov 5th - The Day After)! We are holding the meeting live in San Diego, however we are broadcasting the talk to members of ours around the world via Go-To-Webinar for folks to listen into.

This is a Special Panel Discussion To Answer Your Toughest Questions and Provide Green Investors and Green Entrepreneurs With Positive and Meaningful Insight and Honest Outlook... Panelists are being asked the
following (Unedited):

Will a Green Economy Rebound Faster From Financial Turmoil? Will the current banking chaos reduce innovation in the green tech sector such as solar panels and hydrogen cars? And Is there a new green technology
that the media is not talking about due to the elections that would have been developed sooner had the current financial crisis not taken place?

Will consumers stick with Green during tough times?

What do you think Google's Next Big Green pick will be?

What is the next administration really facing that's not being talked about in the media?

Are non green companies still jump on board the the Green Wave or are the jumping ship?

Are there any studies or signs the green food companies are profitable and appealing to large non-green companies that want to acquire them?

Are there any academically validated theories on how to pick stocks, startup stocks in particular?

Is high nonrenewable prices the only way to reach the point where we significantly shift to renewable energy?? Or are we toast??

What Does Economic Populism Mean For The Green Economy?

Bottom line: Does America need a energy technology bubble just like the information technology bubble?

1st) Has Goldman Sachs' strategy to support "Sustainability" help them weather the storm and avoid collapse, and 2nd) Warren Buffet isn't stupid, So has Smart Money finally gotten wise to the writing on the wall (street) and make large large bets on those that are betting on Green? 3rd) Who's the next Billionaire to money the money??

Is Thomas Friedman the prime leading indicator of the conventional wisdom for this new Economy??

T. Boone promises the largest transfer of wealth in history... Is he right or full of oil?

Will toyota and honda bury the big 3? and will Tesla, Fisker, Aptera become the next big 3?

Is investment in Renewable Energy too risky right now because of low oil prices?

Does Carbon Regulation cause real job creation?

63% of Americans claim they believe that tackling climate change will benefit the economy (despite the crisis on Wall Street), according to new consumer research. Do any of you believe this??

I have a friend who lost 300K in WaMu bonds... What can we all do to
save ourselves from losing everything?

Are IPO's a death sentence or what?

Will so-called angel investors follow the smart money and put their own funds (in new record amounts) into the youngest of companies -- including outfits that are pursuing the most innovative, but not yet
commercially viable, approaches to serious problems of global warming? Or will this kind of seed-stage investing that traditional venture funds have largely abandoned, jump ship, run and hide because they're scared?

I'm curious to know about green collar jobs. Where will the opportunities be and what kinds of education will be most valuable?

Bill McKibben, the Author of Deep Economy, is arguing that we don't have enough time for "green capitalism" to react and respond to avert the climate crisis. This raises the fascinating issue of how quickly capitalism does adapt. How quickly do you think our entire system will adapt? Bill sounds pessimistic arguing that our free market Titanic will hit the iceberg even though we are now incentivized and awake and trying to avoid it!

Is now a good time to start a social/ sustainable startup?

Should innovation in the financial services industry be the most
important priority of the next administration and progress in
engineering green savings bonds as Friedman suggests?

Khosla in an article: (contends that hydrogen fuels are a dead end! Although he drives a hybrid car, he believes that hybrids won't significantly slow global warming. And he's convinced that, in most
places, energy from solar panels will for many years be much too expensive. He also says "There are only four problems with global warming," he tells me, "oil, coal, cement, and steel. If we do those four, we're done.") Is he correct or arrogant and short minded like so many have observed?

Will "Smart Grid" outpace "Thin Film" in raising capital or will Tide Energy, Algae shock us?? Bill Gates shocked me recently, so What's Next??

Will Cleantech reach a fourth quarter of record capital raising?

I am a struggling San Diego based organic farmer/horticulturist... I have seen the decimation of Agriculture in the So Cal region over the last 30+ years... It has reached a point of "no-return". We are now as dependent on our food supply as we are energy! Why energy was never regarded as a National Security issue after the Iran embargo I'll never know... and now as Chilean avocados are sold in San Diego
markets--the one time "avocado capital" we talk about global warming/carbon footprints at mealtime, as foreign foods arrive long
distance by truck and boat... Is food production not a National Security issue? Energy? Water? Or is this status only reserved for failing banks and huge auto makers....

Will an Eco Investor become a Celebrity in today's new Economy? I like my privacy!

Will the US Climate Brand Index make a difference?

Will Khosla continue to be the world's foremost investor in environmental startups or will Doerr or Pickens do him in and or show him how it's done?

Is the sky falling for alternative energy?

Will Kleiner Perkins die if they're wrong by "betting the farm"? I'm ready to bet the farm!

Will EcoInvestors provide support for land development industry-led initiatives to develop projects which balance the needs of people, planet and profit - for today and future generations?

Is Clean Coal real or an illusion for political gain?

Who is in the drivers seat of this new green economy?

I think is vital is: "With reference to 'green' -- What are the changes to individual and collective consciousness wrought by this recession?"

Whoa! Great questions right! Ask more and more! Our time is now! I will recommend that you all listen in for a question or two and email me your own questions at ecoinvestors [at] gmail [dot] com. www.ecoinvestmentclub.com

Re: What is the New Green Economy?

EcoConnoisseur — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 01:22:08 -0000

I happen to deeply agree with the wisdom of Tom Friedman (that we cannot consume of way out of this mess and "Have you ever been to a revolution where nobody gets hurt?"). The fact is that the current economic conditions will cause a lot of companies to close their doors (websites too), and die off and altogether due to lack of understanding the competitive landscape. Those that will fight to stay alive will need to figure out -- What's Next?

I believe that the New Green Economy will include the Rise of Green Real Estate Markets paired with the continued success of Cleantech, Clean Energy Markets, and large scale shifts toward Clean Transportation, and the Greening of the IT Industries (plus a fourth quarter of record investment!!), which will lead to a boom in "American Made" Green Collar Jobs and the creation of new wealth. The trick is: "who will get it right??" Execution makes all the difference for most of these opportunities and green investors need to pay more attention to the items that management claim they can achieve.

Scott, have you ever heard of the Eco Investment Club before? The Club has hosted several high impact, educational meetings that cover these "newly hot topics" such as: "The Economic State of Green Building" with Guest Speaker Harvey Bernstein, Vice President of Industry Analytics, Alliances and Strategic Initiatives for McGraw-Hill Construction and Hosted by Citi Smith Barney's Bruce Kahn, and the First Annual "Green Leaders Week", which was a week-long buffet of events for investors, who were interested in getting face-to-face time with the Green Business Leaders of Southern California. The events of this highly successful week were designed to give Accredited and Institutional Investors, who were interested in getting a first-hand look inside the minds of Cleantech leaders, the opportunity to witness operations of some of the fastest growing companies by attending a series of "open houses", starting with Envirepel Energy, Inc., a clean energy (BioMass) company in Vista, CA.

On Nov. 5th, a panel discussion will be held to provide some direction to Eco Investors and the panelists include:

Glenn Croston, Ph.D.
Author of "75 Green Businesses", Glenn Croston is committed to helping entrepreneurs build and grow profitable businesses that solve environmental challenges. Writing for Fast Company, Entrepreneur, TheStreet.com, Renewable Energy Weekly and other outlets, he highlights opportunities for small business owners and entrepreneurs to build businesses that create a brighter, greener future for us all.

Jan P. Schalkwijk, CFA

Principal and Founder of JPS Global Investments, a San Diego-based investment advisor, focusing on sustainable investing. It is JPS Global’s belief that one does not have to sacrifice return potential by adding environmental and social criteria to the investment process. As a long-term investor, JPS Global believes that companies with sustainable business practices will ultimately outperform those that have unsustainable business models. As such, sustainable investing has financial and environmental/societal rewards, which are both paramount to our clients’ future.

Oren Jaffe, Sustainability Expert

(Note: Oren will be Teleconferenced in from San Francisco, Ca)
Co-Founder of EcoTuesday.com, a Sustainable Business Leaders networking forum based in San Francisco, California, and a Principal at BlueMap Inc., an environmental consulting firm that specializes in quantifying sustainability decisions by helping organizations lower their environmental impact while concurrently saving them time and money. Oren's sustainable business experience includes working for Bureau Veritas (BV) Consumer Products Services, a multi-billion dollar global risk management, health & safety, environmental compliance, and social auditing corporation, where he managed the social compliance division helping Fortune 500 clients more effectively and profitably build global sustainable supply chain programs. Oren was also a founding member of the corporate sustainability development team at BV.

Dave Iverson, Economist

(Note: Dave will be Teleconferenced in from Pleasant View, Utah)
A Social Scientist, Economist, and Environmental Activist. Dave has been working in forest management and public lands management all his adult life. For the past 29 years, Dave worked for the US Forest Service (retired 11/30/07), dealing with land management and public policy played out at the conﬂuence of complex, adaptive natural systems and complex, adaptive, and politically wicked social systems. Before that he also did a short stint with Weyerhaeuser Corporation. Dave is a founding board member for Forest Service Employees for Environmental Ethics (FSEEE) and has played a minor role in the genesis of Public Employees For Environmental Responsibility (PEER).

Scott, I am a fan of the blog and would love to include you on our panel... if your up for it? We could easily teleconference you in to give your two cents. Feel free to email me at ecoinvestors [at] gmail [dot] com.