Disqus - Friends of Dutch

Re: A Day Later

hobotrader — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 13:10:29 -0000

Greetings to all.

Has anyone heard from Master Moo lately?

In regards to the discussions that have been circling since last March regarding "Why is the market going up while the economy is in such a sad state":

In every depression/recession that I have been witness to since the early 70's, there has been an unfailing recurring cycle. The markets generally rebound and have a sustained "recovery" 1 to 1 1/2 years before the economy makes much headway. The reasons for this are simple and relate directly to economics 101. Rebounding markets create "new" jobs. Sustained bull markets create bubbles. It is the way capitalism is designed.

Throw in a little human psychology and the greed vs fear algorithm and you will see the pattern repeat over and over, in all markets, and in all time frames. As in most things, it is simply a matter of prescient timing to be able to benefit from it.

As traders, we have 2 choices; fight the tape or ride it.

I personally am quite fond of counter-trend trades, but they are never as easy as trend-following trades and usually carry a high risk financially and emotionally.

Just my 2 cents.

Re: A Day Later

hobotrader — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 17:41:40 -0000

Ha!
There are so many possible meanings to your question(all of them humorous) that I don't know how to answer. I prefer the obvious one; unskilled countertrend trading can certainly ruin you in a hurry.

Basically I am a scalper at heart. I don't stay in one spot too long. Just riding the rails to see where they take me. I jump on and off at a moments notice if need be.

However, nice longer rides in the warm sun on an open flatcar, (swing trades) are very much my favorites.

Re: A Day Later

hobotrader — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 19:53:24 -0000

For anyone who fancies the exotic fx pairs.

Am long usd/mxn with entry @ 12.51419 and stop @12.4680.
1st target @ 13.0704 with r/r of 8+/1.

Trade based on daily, confirmed by 15 min, and entered on 1 min.
Price support/fib lines.

Or can short /6m.

Re: Following the Leaders

hobotrader — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 11:43:56 -0000

For anyone into AZO.

This channel has been working like a charm. Looks to be setting up for a new level.
[IMG]http://i52.tinypic.com/epk6...[/IMG]

Am long and will remain so. Shorting w/options @ strategic levels to capture full range. Can not think of any good reason to sell shares.

Re: Critical Crossroads

hobotrader — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 05:54:25 -0000

Cup of tea anyone?
GBP/USD 90 day 1hr chart

[IMG]http://i55.tinypic.com/zsmzwo.png[/IMG]

Re: Critical Crossroads

hobotrader — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 07:01:55 -0000

Taking the stairs.

Textbook example on the eur/usd 90 day 1 hr stair-stepping. Two separate trend lines, support & resistance.
Strong resistance @ 1.38 level. If it can break out 1.45+ next strong resistance.

[IMG]http://i56.tinypics.com/2ijj9n9.png[/IMG]
[IMG]http://i55.tinypic.com/jkhnqd.png[/IMG]

Re: Critical Crossroads

hobotrader — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 06:42:11 -0000

eur/usd

[IMG]http://i51.tinypics.com/2mp...[/IMG]

Re: The Diving Dollar

hobotrader — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 14:37:49 -0000

Based on the following never-fail statistical analysis used by the Fed on a daily basis and congenital bears on all up-trending days and never-die bulls during all market "corrections" of more than 10 Dow points;

rec probability = (r+h-l+g)/2*close($dji)[1] + round($VXO[-1]),2((GLD*SLV)/40)*$TBT[-4]-(3.18666)*inv(/es)),1, 0;

I conclude that ash is on the left and bk on the right.

Else

Re: The Diving Dollar

hobotrader — Thu, 14 Oct 2010 04:03:44 -0000

Thus Spake Trichet

ECB Pres Trichet has signaled his Gallic distaste for the run-up on the euro and the market definitely reacted, though not as much as he would like. My analysis tells me he is more comfortable with the euro @ the 1.20 level.

Is the euro headed for new highs, will Dec mark a turn-around, will Trichet & Co be able to stop it at the next major resistance level?

Enquiring minds want to know.
[IMG]http://i52.tinypic.com/9fw2kh.jpg[/IMG]

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 12:31:36 -0000

Definiton of "a series of fortunate events".

Bought 1 goog 540 call @ 19.20 yesterday forenoon expecting a pop up to the 556-560 level today. It ever so slightly exceeded the range. Sold @ 61.40.

Do I wish I had bought more? No. It could have just as easily have gapped down and I would have been out the total price of the call. I was willing to risk 1920.00 on 1 call but not more. It is destructive to even wish that we had exceeded our risk/reward rules in order to profit, for it builds greed. Greed is never good.

Just my 2 cents.

Just call me the "Happy Hobo".
[IMG]http://i52.tinypic.com/eioa...[/IMG]

Re: The Diving Dollar

hobotrader — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 12:58:44 -0000

Moo,

You won't recognize my avatar as I use to post on another blog that you visited from time to time , but with a different moniker. I was always amazed at your trading discipline and uncanny calls. Learned a lot by analyzing your trades and entry/exit points and the psychology of your style.

I was saddened to learn that apparently you have been experiencing some health issues? I wish you a total recovery.

You have always been the Master, but to borrow a title from Tolkien, I think we can justifiably remember this day as
"The Return of the King".

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 08:10:41 -0000

An enquiry into the relative performance of competing platforms.

I have through the years had retail accounts with various brokers, both discount and full price. Schwab,Siebert,Thompson.TOS ,Lightspeed,Infinity,FXCM,Cannon,TradeStation,etc.

Many will recognize theses names as being full-range as well as specialized brokerage firms.

I have, for the last few years, been using TOS and comparing it to some of the others listed; stock vs stock, fx vs fx futures vs futures.

My experience is as follows:

If you are serious about fx, don't even bother with TOS, as fill price and execution seem to be an after-thought to the company. I have watched as trades never fill whilst the price runs through the order price for minutes, or worse, fill at horrendous prices whilst execution on other platforms is consistently quick and reliable.

If you trade futures, you might use TOS as a backup in the case that your real broker has some hick-up in their system. Otherwise, same experience as with fx. I have many times watched an order trade on other platforms 30 seconds or more before the price even registers on TOS. As for their Time and Sales data...

Stocks are a toss up, though this may be due to the fact that I do not trade any size in Equities, usually only 100 shares at a time. In the past I traded 1k whilst scalping, but the execution and fill price I found lacking.

Options on TOS seem to be the real jewel . There are a lot of things to like.

I prefer their charts by far over most other platforms, when the data is not on vacation or simply wrong, which seems to be more and more often. Sigh. In a fast moving market I am getting more and more uncomfortable with TOS's data.

My intention is not to trash any platform, but rather to offer an honest account of my experience. I have a tremendous amount of screen time invested in the TOS platform over the last 4 years or so and would hate to have to change. But the never-ending and increasing data discrepancies as well as platform performance issues are very worrisome to my soul.

If anyone is experiencing better performance with a suitable retail broker, please inform me. Or if your experience with TOS is different or the same, I would appreciate your input.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 08:47:33 -0000

eur/usd convergence?

[IMG]http://i53.tinypic.com/2qi0...[/IMG]

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 09:06:04 -0000

Thanks for the reply.

My experience is that Infinity is a very reliable and fast execution platform for futures, They claim to have their servers on-site at the CME and from their speed, I believe it. Their platform is basically a trader's DOM but many people find it easy to learn and it does have sufficient functionality for serious trading. No bells or whistles, which suits me fine for futures.

Charts are extra but I use TOS charts, but don't have much faith in anything under 15 min, sometimes not even then. I do happily have the ability to retain charts in my head so the price will tell me where I am even when the charts are not working. But price data must be accurate.

It is ironic that Prophet charts, which is on the TOS platform and itself has frequent data drops, still is often more accurate than TOS.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 11:09:52 -0000

I have never been charged for a canceled trade to date. I think that is their SOP.

Commission is based on volume of course but I think they start you off @ $4.80 ish RT.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 11:13:48 -0000

Thanks for the reply.

Yes, who would want delayed data feed on a trading platform?

Compared to many other platforms scripting language, thinkscript is barely a toy. You would think they would spend a little time and money on a real Sl, but I guess not.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 11:28:49 -0000

Thanks for the reply.

I used TradeStation for about a year. mainly to compare and develop my own strats and custom algorithms,but they were experiencing a lot a problems with compatibility issues between the newer and older releases. Many prior developed strats, etc would malfunction in the newer releases. It was taking all my "free" time to keep up with recoding. But EL is a great SL. If not for that issue, I would still be with TS.

One huge complaint; when I closed out my account. it took 8, yes thats right, 8 months to get my money released. Everyone I talked to assured the "check is in the mail" until finally I was able to contact a truthful supervisor who told me the account had never been closed or processed on their end. This was at the 6 month mark. Took two more months to receive my money, though the supervisor assured me they would "expedite" my request. Maybe 2 months is their idea of quick. Their customer service is the worst I have ever encountered anywhere. Could not have cared less is I ever received my money or not. Needless to say, I was unhappy.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 11:34:32 -0000

Thanks for your reply.

Do I understand correctly that you are getting bad fills on TOS? Is that for everything you trade on the platform?
I would appreciate any details you might be willing to provide, whenever you have the time to respond.

I looked at IB in the past but I believe they have an outside vendor for their data? No native charting, is that still true?

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 11:49:18 -0000

Good reminder.

Greed, like speed,(both the highway as well as the chemical kind),kills.

Re: Post Options Expiration Fallout?

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 12:02:39 -0000

Do you have a free trial period?

Would be interested in a sprdsht that covers a couple years containing your trade info, esp interested in max drawdowns.

Thanks

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 12:16:42 -0000

Thanks for responding.

Hmm, never tried the 1 min delay tactic, but that is crazy to have to delay"live" data, no? At this point I think TOS is a victim of it's own success. Not keeping up with the data reqs of it's customers.

I agree that TS is far beyond and much more robust than TOS in many respects. But read my reply to Morrise re nightmare when I closed my account.Sheesh.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 20:02:34 -0000

The "explanations" given for the increasingly common"glitches" would insult the intelligence of any 10 year old.

Though not a country music fan, it brings to mind the verse, "Got some ocean front property in Arizona, from my front porch step you can see the sea".

It is still for sale if anyone is interested.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 20:09:45 -0000

Another View of the Q

[IMG]http://i51.tinypic.com/14kid8l.png[/IMG]

ST trend line support kicked in right on schedule, as Brinkley pointed out.

As the image shows, the first Fib 50% retracement is @2054.25, but I expect an overnight test of the 2032.75 as that is a
more important 50% retracement as well as coincides with horizontal support trend line.

Time will tell.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Tue, 19 Oct 2010 06:07:47 -0000

eur/usd
[IMG]http://i53.tinypics.com/5vt...[/IMG]

ECB seems to be serious in preventing further rise of the euro. Either there is small scale intervention or Trichet has spooked the euro bulls and given heart to the bears,
at least temporarily.

Image shows daily with inset of the horizontal resistance that is now acting as support. I count 9 times from 2/9 to 3/17 that it held the euro down. So far it has held the euro up 4 times in last 10 days. Top solid red line is major 50% Fib resistance retracement and the lower solid red line is an intermediate 50% support retracement. Charts don't lie.

Am still looking for a real showdown in the 1.45-1.50 area, if we ever get there.

A real nail biter.

Re: Bears Fight While Market Takes Flight

hobotrader — Tue, 19 Oct 2010 06:46:46 -0000

gbp/usd
[IMG]http://i53.tinypics.com/w14...[/IMG]
Cup and handle has played out nicely or is still in play, depending on your interpretation of the setup.

Pound has enjoyed a nice swing up, but has run into some strong selling. Image shows daily with redline 50% Fib resistance coinciding with the 2/4 prior high. Both acting as strong resistance as is evident by the reaction at that price level.

Upper dotted yellow line is prior down trendline resistance which lines up nicely as support with ST 50% Fib around 1.57 Lower dotted line is uptrend support line.Cable is notorious for busting 61.8% Fibs as though they don't exist and then doing a fish hook, so it's anybody's guess. LT trend is still up.