Disqus - Latest Comments for DerekNJND

Re: S&P Above 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, Eyeing 50% at 1,121

DerekNJND — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:11:46 -0000

Believe it or not, I'm setting up for a contrarian trade tomorrow and monday. I think the low of 1046 on the s&p holds up as the low of this brief correction, and by oct 1 we will have broken 1100, i actually think closer to 1140-1150. The market never gives up easy points--2 days ago everyone assumed 1100 s&p and 10000dow, now everyone even pros r setting up shorts and expecting another 10 or 15% down. Dont b fooled, you heard it here first!!

Re: S&P Above 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, Eyeing 50% at 1,121

DerekNJND — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:31:08 -0000

I know the fund managers are definitely chasing the good names, the oil, tech, maybe some upper crust retailers and financials, but the activity in names like CHRS is definitely the global asset mgrs and hedgies. And since most of the morgan stanleys and goldmans were getting in 6-10 months ago, tough to think theyd be doing anything but seling 300% or more later

Re: S&P Above 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, Eyeing 50% at 1,121

DerekNJND — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:27:25 -0000

This clash with the downtrend line is something I'm watching on the weekly SPX as well--if we even get that far. IMO, we wont get there and then fail---the failure will be self-fulfilling as most longs in the market are pros right now and will be lean on positions well in advance. I personally think the volume spikes we've seen in many stocks the last 2 weeks (although pushing price HIGHER and showing up green) are actually goldman, barclays, morgan, etc. trimming down some of their holdings that have already made enormous returns. For example, I've been daytrading CHRS, Charming Shoppes. Well, Friday between 3:58 and 4:03 pm, someone dumped 6.3 million shares--a gaping anomaly on a chart with average daily volume below 500k. 6.3 million shares were bought back in December by one of the largest holders, Barclays. Seen similar activity in other equities as well. Sick thing is they're actually pumping a lot of these stocks UP as they dump, meaning rally chasers will turn bag holders soon. The only question is are they selling ahead of a pullback, or selling ahead of something worse? Anyway my point is the risk reward here is clearly starting to look silly for longs. institutions are closing positions from winter/spring, many equities have already doubled, tripled, gone 10X up, more you name it, and we're 50 points off of a historic powerful downtrend line from Oct 2007, a line that signals the most powerful market crash in US history. Hmm? I think it might be worth it to sit out the next 50 points or be short :)