http://disqus.com/by/Crazylegslaz/enWed, 04 Jun 2008 13:36:54 -0000http://www.zacharybass.com/2008/06/can-apple-double-iphone-sales-goal-in-2008.html#comment-591390<p>All your numbers are way off. 2007 global mobile phone sales were about 1.1 billion. Apple sold about 5.1 million iphones from launch through March 31 and perhaps another 1 to 1.5 million to date. So based on the 2007 figure, total mkt penetration is only 0.5%, not close to 3%. A 3% run rate on 2008 total mkt figures would be roughly 36 million phones (based on 1.2B mobiles sold, or roughly 10% more than 2007) or more than triple their estimate. I don't think anyone, no matter how iPhonatical one is, believes they'll sell 36 million in 2008. They might do it in 2009, but even that seems like a stretch. Regardless, factual information would be appreciated.</p><p>In response to Zoltar, you have to smoking some great grass to come up with 50 - 100 million iphones in 2009. Please send some of that stuff my way! As an investor I sure hope so, but the thing you completely miss is that an iPod is far less of an investment than the iPhone, so sales comparisons are ridiculous. If you had to buy a two year data plan for each iPod, you think sales would be so high? No way. Again the addressable mkt for iPhone is actually smaller than everyone believes until they bring that price down. It will be extremely hard given Apple doesn't like to cheapen its brand and the very advanced bill of materials (accelerometer, large touch screen, 3G chip, Edge/GPRS chip, Wifi chip, etc).</p>CrazylegslazWed, 04 Jun 2008 13:36:54 -0000