Disqus - Latest Comments for BigFan

Re: Are We Underestimating the Bear?

stockchartist — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:59:31 -0000

What an unusual, eerie feeling having switched sides. The Bears' Bear is cautious about the weakness in the market and looking over his shoulder waiting for the bulls to run him down and I saw, and continue to see, a freefall for another 7-10%. Check it out at

http://stockchartist.blogsp...

Re: Your Blogroll Sucks…and Mine Does Too The Reformed Broker

stockchartist — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 22:16:42 -0000

I disagree and update my blog roll about once a month. I'll add a couple of blogs where the writer presents original material and opinions that most consistently hit the mark. I'd be happen to add TRB .... if you add Stock Chartist to yours. If you come by to visit, you'll see that my posts have been extremely prescient.

Re: It’s Now a Long / Short Market Again

stockchartist — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 21:03:29 -0000

I do the long/short play via calls on SDS, the ETF for 2x short on SPY against my remaining long positions. This allows me to hedge on the downside without foregoing upside potential. It's all laid out in:
http://stockchartist.blogsp...

Re: XLU Breaks Beneath Triangle

stockchartist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:35:31 -0000

Tim, be careful in shorting XLU. My view is longer term than yours and I see an inverted head+shoulders pattern with little downside opportunity. There's a better chance that after forming the right shoulder down to 27.50, a mere 3-4% decline, the greater opportunity is on the upside with the bonus of dividends. Here's what I'm looking at:http://tinyurl.com/short-xlu

Re: LEAPS! (by Fujisan)

stockchartist — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 17:15:20 -0000

I agree with Fujisan and offer yesterday's analysis (from a different perspective buy coming to the same conclusion) at http://www.stockchartist.bl... as support.

Re: Pattern seeking run amok Abnormal Returns

stockchartist — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 05:14:23 -0000

I just wrote about another type of pattern: the fluctuations of 12-month market returns going on since 1929. A look at the chart (see "More Evidence We're Approaching a Top") leads one to conclude that it's time for the market to take a break in the current recovery process. We may not be able to predict the market but we can determine when a trend is over-extended. Unless you believe the market moves in a straight line, you must accept that it moves in waves. The only thing you don't know is whether the next wave is going to be a ripple or tsunami.

Re: Is There Such a Thing as Smart Money?

stockchartist — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 18:29:05 -0000

There's no such thing as "smart" or "dumb" money. There's only "big" or institutional money and individual investor money. The only way individual investors can make money is if they follow institutional money.

Re: Google Wave…The Twitter IPO That Should Have Been

stockchartist — Sat, 30 May 2009 21:50:50 -0000

Downtrend lines are meaningless, especially the downward sloping one you drew with only two pivot points. Horizontal trendlines (resistance and support) are the most important because that's where lots of shares traded hands.

Meaningful changes in trend is when buyers finally overcome sellers, shift the balance of power and initiate upside momentum. You can see that most clearly on a breakthrough of a significant horizontal trendline like the one we're soon going to see at $SPX 935.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/23/saturday_sermon.htm

stockchartist — Sat, 23 May 2009 21:49:40 -0000

This is the weirdest thread I've read! You're all so defensive in your bearish positions that you seem to have blinders on.

It's not that I haven't made any money as the market tanked over the past 18 months. I was totally in cash as of last January, bought SDS last August and have been riding the inflation trade since March. On a relative basis, my portfolio has performed 35% better than the S&P 500 benchmark since January 1, 2008.

My point merely was related to the recurring theme of "let's pray" for a down market, it'll make us happy and do wonders to our equity balances. There's no doubt it was the right way to go for the past 18 months .... but the world turns, night turns into day, and bear markets at some point flatten and then start going up and becoming bull markets.

In fact, the market's at about the same place it was in seven months ago. Sure it cratered in between but it's back up there now. Other than what might happen when the market closes this Tuesday, does anyone here care where it will be between next Wednesday and year-end?

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/23/saturday_sermon.htm

stockchartist — Sat, 23 May 2009 14:13:39 -0000

"if we can snap below 878, we could be in for some serious downside. And that would do wonders to brighten my disposition. Let us pray." This is truly a "Bear's Den". You guys are really sick if the only way you can make money or have fun is when everyone is losing their shirts. Remember, the market goes up more than 70% of the time, your maximum profit can only be matching what you've invested (or a multiple of that if you use leveraged instruments), the bulls' profit can theoretically be infinite. I feel for you guys as you squirm.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/12/good_as_gold.htm

stockchartist — Tue, 12 May 2009 22:51:58 -0000

Another view of the performance in gold mining stocks yesterday is in http://tinyurl.com/goldminers. As a group, I still think these are about to pop.

Re: Possible Fractal Elliott Wave Count of Gold May 12

stockchartist — Tue, 12 May 2009 21:39:04 -0000

Let me give you a prediction. Gold (using GLD as the proxy) to 145 by end of 2010. I arrived at that price by measuring the distance between the last major support at 69, what might be considered the bottom of the inverse head-and-shoulders mentioned in the last comment and the neckline at 100 (or 144%) and extrapolating that by an equal percentage.

This move will really pick up steam after the breakout above the 100 however will likely first test the 100 neckline as a support.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/05/11/an_abundance_of_short_opportunities.htm

stockchartist — Mon, 11 May 2009 17:57:12 -0000

Finding short candidates is a piece of cake. There are over 400 stocks that have capitalization of $400mm or more and have doubled since 3/9. Short a basket of them and you should make some good money quickly, don't you think?

Re: SP500 Elliott Wave Update: Competiting Interpretations

stockchartist — Sun, 10 May 2009 18:03:22 -0000

Wave counts confuse me. I'll stick with trend analysis based on trendlines and moving averages. I've come to the same conclusion as you (i.e., another leg down but this last one shorter than March and more similar to last November) but have done so based on an emerging inverted head-and-shoulder bottom pattern. See my analysis at www.stockchartist.blogspot.com

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/29/danger_zone.htm

stockchartist — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 17:19:30 -0000

Why can't you bears just admit it, your day has come and just about gone. The market goes up 75% of the time so that gives you plenty of time to contemplate why things just aren't working out the way you thought they would. The world isn't coming to an end and now you don't know what to do or how to play it ..... I know it's not in your constitution but you might consider learning something new for a change like going long or buying calls.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/25/posttest.htm

stockchartist — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:51:04 -0000

Tim, how many readers are you going to lose if you're no longer a Bear? Will you be able to go with the flow and show readers how to make money in an up-market, how they should pick stocks with stronger and greater momentum than the Index? Boo-hoo, it's so sad seeing this bear market end.

In the meanwhile, check out the steel producers like AKS and CPSL, GGB, MT, MTL, PKX, SID, SIM and TS. Big moves coming.

Re: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/25/little_quizzies_and_big_testies.htm

stockchartist — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 14:31:23 -0000

The .SPX is 10.5% away from the 200DMA. The last time it almost closed over was May 19 and last time it actually was over the 200DMA was Dec 26, 2007. At the current trend rate (4%/mo.) the Index could cross again would be around Memorial Day at around 917. That's what the Big Money is anticipating and why they're jumping all over stocks now in anticipation of that cross.

Re: Frederator Studios Blogs | Dan Meth's Blog | College Radio Interview.

stockchartist — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 12:04:11 -0000

Uncanny coincidence? I'd call it a "God-works"

Re: Momentum is all Around Us…Don’t Fight It, Embrace It!

stockchartist — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:24:32 -0000

About the most worthless 10 minutes of reading I ever spent. I'm still trying to figure out what your point is. You must suffer from A.D.D.

Re: Frederator Studios Blogs | Dan Meth's Blog | Meth Minute is … Complete!?

stockchartist — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 16:36:19 -0000

Dan, you are my hero for sticking to this and finishing it. I salute you.