Disqus - Latest Comments for BeachCitiesHuggy

Re: Ciao, Monticello | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Wed, 24 Nov 2010 10:52:21 -0000

Predictable pavlovian response from Mookie to some basic factual info. Must drive you nuts that people are still buying here. The bitterness of the perma-renter is obviously consuming you, as evidenced by your 3-year obsession with me.

Fwiw, Median single family price in Man Bch last year at this time was $1,435,000; this year, $1,550,000. But just keep repeating, "It's the mix, Dammit, THE MIX!"

Re: Ciao, Monticello | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Wed, 24 Nov 2010 01:30:21 -0000

It would appear they had multiple offers. Sale price was $2,030,000. If I'm not mistaken, this was a Daniel Salzman custom build (same builder as the 'green' LEEDS-certified house at 645 9th that sold earlier this year for $6 million).

Re: Frequent Star in the Gallery of Cuts | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 12:55:26 -0000

Maybe the listing agent is getting the last laugh here. 24 E Malaga now appears to be in escrow (Backup Offer status).

Re: Pricing Poll: 3601 Laurel | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 19:08:10 -0000

Precisely the point I've made for several years, horses. That's why the last 3 polls saw the percentage of voters who guessed too low were 76%, 89% and 89%. In other words, MBC's followers (at least those bothering to vote) were almost universally wrong on both scores - prediction and valuation. Yours and JC's explanation and the difference between wishing and analyzing value gets to the heart of the matter.

Not saying they might not do better with a location-challenged home. As the song goes, "If wishes were horses, I'd have a ranch. Come on, MBW, and give me another chance."
- with apologies to Lucinda Williams

Re: Median Price Bouncing Back | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 18:31:01 -0000

What I am saying is the Trulia "data" does not comport with either the sales data on the MLS or the data reported by a 3rd party resource like Trendgraphix.

So what is Trulia measuring? Are they including off-MLS sales? That would be a couple of additional sales, not enough to significantly impact 3 months of market data. Maybe including residential income properties? Who knows, but Trulia's info bears no relationship to what Dave is reporting and what I've seen on the ground, save for the past 4-5 weeks.

My study of the past 3 months shows that median home prices are up about 6% (lower than the 10% Dave is reporting above because of the weak September numbers). PPSF, on a year-over-year basis, is also up 6% versus the July-September period last year. That makes more sense than prices being up 6% and PPSF being down 14% (cue Mookie's rant, "It's the mix, dammit, THE MIX!").

Re: Median Price Bouncing Back | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 01:11:51 -0000

Sorry, Daaron, not buying what you're selling. I can go on the MLS, as I just did a minute ago, and confirm the Trendgraphix data above, namely that September was weak but July and August were strong months on a y-o-y comparison basis.

In fact, by pulling up all the Manhattan Beach sales posted on the MLS for condos, townhomes and single family homes over that three month period, I see an average PPSF that has increased from $570.14 in '09 to $602.52/sq.ft. in 2010, a roughly 6% increase.

Btw, a typo implies a random failure of manual dexterity at the keyboard. Your continued use of the word "medium" instead of the correct term median reflects a failure of knowledge. Hopefully, you've been educated now.

Re: Median Price Bouncing Back | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 13:41:43 -0000

Daaron, aren’t you supposed to be the expert financial analyst whose employers pay big bucks for your insights and acumen? If so, wouldn’t such an “expert” know what every MB middle schooler knows – that it’s the “median” not the “medium” price?
And wouldn’t such an “expert” know, as has been discussed here many times, that one month’s data is insignificant because the data sets are small, causing the numbers (whether we’re talking about median sale prices or average price/square foot) to jump around from month to month?

So while it’s true that, in Manhattan Beach, September’s average PPSF (they use averages for PPSF and medians for sale prices) for all residential sales was 14% lower than September, 2009, August’s PPSF was up almost 10% from a year ago and July’s PPSF was up a whopping 19% over July, 2009, from $536/sqft to $636/sqft (Source: Trendgraphix).

Bottom line: Instead of posting erroneous info about our schools and their class sizes, perhaps you should be attending some of those classes, particularly the math classes that discuss the concepts of mean, mode and median. Maybe also a class on statistics so you can gauge what is and is not a meaningful data set.

You’re right about one thing, however. RBD (also posting as curiousgeorgian) is crazy. With a capital C.

Re: A Beginning and An End on 31st | Manhattan Beach Confidential

BeachCitiesHuggy — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 14:18:25 -0000

Welcome to my world, Roper. I haven't posted here in months yet you can hardly go a day without the most bitter and insecure in MBC's loony bin obsessing about me. It's all good, though. In these turbulent times, it's comforting to see that some things are constant and unchanging, like Mookie's rants.

Gotta go. I'll check back in the fall to see which newly-minted homeowners have picked up the Huggy mantle of defending Manhattan Beach against this blog's coterie of MB haters (had to throw 'coterie' in there just for Mookie's benefit).

Re: Weekend Opens (5/22-5/23)

BeachCitiesHuggy — Sat, 29 May 2010 01:48:31 -0000

Hey, gang, the bitter little eye doc has returned. While I didn't read your entire comment (I felt myself slipping into unconsciousness perusing the one millionth repetition of your coma-inducing mantra), I did notice you managed to misstate the sales data of 2005 vs 2010, ytd, no doubt in keeping with the reliability of the rest of your "data."

I just pulled this off the MLS 5 minutes ago.

SFR sales in Manhattan Beach, ytd:

2005 - 163 (120 at end of April)
2010 - 125 (87 at end of April)

Mix is a meaningless term, a chameleon that is forever changing its color to suit (and soothe) the COTC's true believers. Besides, your not saying it correctly - it's "The Mix, DAMMIT, THE MIX!!"

Re: Weekend Opens (5/22-5/23)

BeachCitiesHuggy — Fri, 28 May 2010 22:10:50 -0000

Living To Rent says "By paying a much lower price to rent my home than what I would pay to own it, I save all of that money and invest it. It's my estimation that I'll be better off financially by doing so."

Hope you didn't invest in stocks - S&P hasn't budged from where it was 10 years ago. In fact, S&P was 1378 10 years ago, now 1089. Yep, good strategy LTR.

Real estate, on the other hand, has done exceptionally well over the past decade. And even with the recent downturn, we're still at 2005 prices.

Median Home Sale Price for Manhattan Beach SFRs (YTD, MLS sales)

2005 - $1,549,000
2010 - $1,545,000

What's that, COTC? What about the mix of sales? (you know, the Mix, DAMMIT, THE MIX!!).

SFR Sales Over $2 million, ytd

2005 - 34
2010 - 32

To quote Psycho-loon, "Ooops!"

Re: Weekend Opens (5/22-5/23)

BeachCitiesHuggy — Thu, 27 May 2010 11:29:23 -0000

Some other recent paired sales:

455 35th – Sold 5/9/03 for $1,250,010, resold 5/20/10 for $1,599,000.

3212 Blanche – Sold for $1,730,000 on 5/21/04, resold 2/15/05 for $1,800,000, resold for $1,795,00 on 4/30/10 ($1,255,000 seller financed).

1009 8th – Sold for $2,280,000 on 11/15/04, resold for $2 million on 5/16/10.

It is worth noting that both 1009 8th and 710 Dianthus were new homes when originally purchased. As such, the original home sale is automatically discounted (sort of like a new car that drops in value after it's driven off the lot). A graphic example of this is 229 24th Street, the brand new Sexton home that sold in November for $4.2mm. Unfortunately, the owner suddenly passed away and the home was resold in April for $3.8mm (neither sale was reported on the MLS).

The technique of pairing same home sales popularized by Case Shiller only reflects resales of existing homes, not new ones.

Regardless, no conclusions about where we are chronologically in terms of home prices can be drawn from a couple of sales. Looking at the totality of sales ytd we are up 5.5% from last year as of this morning. The median price ytd is $1,528,750 (MLS sales only); in 2005 at this time, the median was $1,544,500 or about one percent higher.

Also, on my computer, the preceding comments on this thread have disappeared but I believe my comment above was relevant to the discussion (not so much now).

Re: Weekend Opens (5/22-5/23)

BeachCitiesHuggy — Tue, 25 May 2010 18:31:36 -0000

Facts disturb you that much, failed? Just keep repeating, "It's the mix of sales that's pushing the median higher, the mix, dammit, THE MIX!"

Don't know if we'll get back to '07 but we're firmly off the bottom - even your simian comrade Mookie acknowledges as much, though like you, he can't bear to see home prices go up so he qualifies them as "modestly" higher.

Re: 3 Quickies

BeachCitiesHuggy — Mon, 24 May 2010 21:25:42 -0000

What's that sound? It's either a flood of Option ARM resets or (obscure movie reference alert) the rains of Ranchipur. Either way, we've got to get to safe ground. Run for the hills (or the top of Sand Dune Park). And bring a couple of cans of chili with you; that's the new currency.

Re: Weekend Opens (5/22-5/23)

BeachCitiesHuggy — Mon, 24 May 2010 18:56:08 -0000

The data on same-house resales from 2005 relates to a grand total of 12 homes purchased in 2005 that were resold in 2008-9, nine of which sold for a loss. I doubt this is what the COTC is latching onto when they talk about home prices here being at 2004 levels today in 2010.

Regardless, I'm referring to the totality of sales year-to-date (no seasonality) in 2010 and comparing that total to the totality of sales ytd in 2005 (as reported on the MLS). This is a much larger data sample and, as a result, more relevant. The fact that there are few opportunities for direct comparisons of 2005-purchased homes resold in 2010 doesn't invalidate the overall fact that these numbers convey in my view.

Re: Weekend Opens (5/22-5/23)

BeachCitiesHuggy — Mon, 24 May 2010 17:53:49 -0000

Btw, A_non, your use of the word "programming" in your comment is accurate on several levels, if you catch my drift.

Re: Weekend Opens (5/22-5/23)

BeachCitiesHuggy — Mon, 24 May 2010 16:46:45 -0000

A_non, I was just going to make the same point but you did so far more eloquently.

So you agree with me then that this blog caters to an undue (some would say hysterical) pessimism about real estate, which, as I have posited in the past, masks an extreme form of sour grapes envy from the bitter renter sect?

Pessimism may have been the order of the day during the housing-fueled economic crisis but, with extremely low mortgage rates, much more affordable homes and an economy that appears to be mending, that pessimism is clearly passe.

And the sweet deals of the recent past are quickly giving way to firmer and higher prices, the most recent example being 861 10th Street, a 2001-built Nick Schaar Craftsman-style home selling immediately for just a shade below its $2,695,000 list (compare with similar size homes at 407 Larsson and 881 10th, both of which were newer and which came in under $2.2 million last year).

But here's the worst set of facts of all so if you're in this blog's Cult of the Clueless, please avert your eyes and do not read the rest of this comment, as it could cause severe mental scarring:

Median Single Family Home Prices in Manhattan Beach, Year-To-Date

2005

All Areas $1,554,000 (150 sales)
West of Sepulveda $1,627,500 (102 sales)

2009

All Areas $1,425,000 (80 sales)
West of Sepulveda $1,542,500 (52 sales)

2010

All Areas $1,550,000 (121 sales) Up 8.8% over '09 ytd median
West of Sepulveda $1,637,500 (91 sales) Up 6.2% over '09 ytd median

Yes, COTC, you are reading those numbers correctly. While the accepted "wisdom" on this blog is that we are back at 2004 prices and going lower, the overall data shows that we are at 2005 prices and, at least for the moment, going higher. Note, too, that volume is practically back to 2005 levels as well.

I know, I know, clueless and landless minions, better grab your prayer beads, start praying for that double dip and, above all, keep repeating

It's the mix of sales that's causing this runup in median home prices. The mix, DAMMIT, THE MIX!

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Thu, 20 May 2010 14:30:49 -0000

You're right, A_non. There'll be so much trading, hoarding and consuming of canned chili, Manhattan Beach will sound like the campfire scene from 'Blazing Saddles.'

Send lawyers, guns and money...
-Warren Zevon

And since you said the magic word, Dr. Venkmann..(hope this isn't too many cultural references for one posting)

Median Single Family Home Prices WOS (MLS-Reported Sales only)

2002 - $850,000
2003 - $1,025,000
2004 - $1,502,500
2005 - $1,725,000

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Wed, 19 May 2010 19:36:14 -0000

Did you just pull that analysis out of the Chimpanzee's Guide to Real Estate? A_non, I'm warming to your way of thinking.

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Wed, 19 May 2010 18:53:07 -0000

With both 'failed' and RB Dude aka curiousgeorgian aka Psycho-loon™ both making an appearance, it looks like the loser quotient on this blog just went up exponentially.

Some facts for torturing MBC's chimps:

Single Family Home Sales In Manhattan Beach, ytd

2009

Total Sales - 76
Volume - $140,000,000
Median - $1,425,000

2010

Total Sales - 112 (up 47.4%)
Volume - $200,000,000 (up 42.9%)
Median - $1,500,000 (up 5.3%)

Uh oh, losers, looks like your prayers for another leg down have taken a wrong turn. And Psycho-loon™, those are C-L-O-S-E-D sales. I think that drool you're referencing is the puddle on your apartment floor (you know, that place you wake up on in the morning).

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Tue, 18 May 2010 18:02:19 -0000

Well, I guess you have me at a disadvantage, MBW, as I am certainly not as familiar with your blog and the history of the various comments that I was objecting to as you are. Your points are well taken.

But, contrary to your assertion, I have not "stored up other beefs" over the years, except to say that I also seem to recall as falling into the lies category multiple and varied comments about Manhattan Beach in general like crime and pollution statistics (whatever happened to pollution guy?), the number of homes in foreclosure (a COTC fave) and speculation about the financial status of individual homesellers.

The latter is particularly egregious because there is no way that I have determined to even make a coherent judgment about someone's financial status, even if they have an NOD on the property (one example, a property for sale in East Manhattan had an NOD that was filed by a private party pursuant to a messy divorce, I believe - may have said something about the couple's marital situation but not about their financial situation). I even called Property Shark and they told me that if public records showed two loans on a property, they could not tell me if they represented two current loans or if one was a refi of the other (would love it if someone would verify).

Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is if someone makes a statement of 'fact' about a home (or the seller of a home) on the market, you could contact the agent for verification and print the response, rather than waiting for the falsehood to take on a life of its own here or for the agent to respond (contrary to popular belief, not all agents read your blog).

Sorry about going off topic.

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Tue, 18 May 2010 15:43:36 -0000

Of course there is no correct or incorrect valuation, except that which the free market assigns. Again, not the point.

But think for a moment. What would drive this blog's cult following to vote en masse and undershoot the eventual sale price by 76%, 89% and 89% of the voters in the last 3 polls? With a scientific poll of people who actually know or had seen the property, you would expect more diversity of opinion, right?

So clearly the COTC thinks they are having an impact (or else it's just therapy to assuage their tender psyches over their current rental situation and inability to afford a home here). Whether they are in fact having an impact on individual properties may be unknown and unknowable, I'm merely raising the issue. But it certainly seems like a reasonable possibility.

And, as for lying, the volume of outright lies from the COTC in the comments section of this blog is staggering, whether its a bogus problem with the lot line (742 27th), bogus claims of mold (620 9th), bogus claims of what an agent told them at an open house (as Mookie was caught lying about recently). Again, you have to ask yourself why? I think the answer is pretty obvious.

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Tue, 18 May 2010 11:57:41 -0000

A_non, I'm going to respectfully disagree with you on a couple of things.

First, while I agree that the pricing polls are the antithesis of scientific and that most of the voters are not actual market participants (I fondly refer to them as the Cult of the Clueless), there is another side here.

Let's say I've listed my home for $1.5mm and the baboon brigade has just priced it at $1.3mm, courtesy of an MBC pricing poll. Now I know that someone who has been eying my home for some time and views $1.5mm as a good value is not likely to be dissuaded from buying but someone who's on the fence might be. And the committed buyer who saw value at $1.5mm may now re-evaluate. Who pays the price?

After all, home valuation is far from an exact science and there is a strong emotional component to homebuying as well so it is natural to look at any evidence, however unscientific and misguided, before buying and if a seller's home is being taken down by MBC's chimps, whether via a pricing poll or just by printing false information about the home, there is likely to be some negative impact on the homeseller, however difficult that may be to quantify.

Now that you're a homeowner (excuse me, knifecatcher), I find your statement that if a particular homeseller was damaged "who cares" a bit curious.

As for the ability of the internet to inform, I can also point to specific examples on this blog of the internet's ability to misinform. And, again, since the blog's mission statement is to provide a forum for the landless and clueless (there I go again being judgmental), the impact can be deleterious to homesellers and homeowners.

That's not to say that your last sentence is incorrect, just that it misses my point.

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Tue, 18 May 2010 11:19:45 -0000

Okay, so my preceding comment may appear harsh and overly judgmental to some. After sleeping on it, one can also come to the following purely speculative conclusions:

1. No seller wants to hear that his home has lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in the short time that he’s owned it. Perhaps, after having been advised of such by his realtor, he went to MBW looking for sustenance, not realizing that if his realtor was being honest with him, MBW would be brutally so.

2. Of course, Palm’s owner might have had the exact opposite experience, ie, he may have felt the odds of a substantial diminution in value were great while his realtor was telling him “Don’t worry, it will sell for close to what you paid for it.” After all, there is an obvious incentive for the realtor not to piss off the homeseller with bad news so perhaps the seller was looking for advice he could trust from an “objective” 3rd source.
Beach Rat, notice that "objective" is in quotes - no renter who's mission statement says homes are overpriced and who has demeaned homesellers in the past as delusional can be viewed as truly objective. Everyone has an ax to grind on this blog.

3. In the end, it’s entirely possible that MBW did everyone a favor here – (1) the homeseller, because he was dissuaded from overpricing his home (again, as I say, a natural instinct when we’re talking hundreds of thousands of dollars), (2) the realtor, because he didn’t have to take an overpriced listing and hope that the seller eventually sees the light before he cancels the listing and relists with a new agent (at a lower price, of course – think 2100 Pine) and (3) me and the rest of the homeowning public of Manhattan Beach because every high-end sale helps the market stabilize and an overpriced listing of that prominence would have just sat there and helped fuel buyer negativity.

So, let’s see, are there any losers in this outcome? Ooops, sorry COTC.

Re: Close the Books on 2603 Palm

BeachCitiesHuggy — Tue, 18 May 2010 02:21:15 -0000

It is a mystery to me why someone selling a home in Manhattan Beach would ask MBW what his home is worth.

First, MBW has never seen the property in question, except from the outside. Of course, that doesn’t stop his slavish followers who regularly vote in his pricing polls on other people’s homes, sight unseen (accuracy rate of the last 3 pricing polls was 24%, 11% and 11%). So why should it stop him? Who needs to know anything about the floor plan, the amenities, how much light the house gets, how much noise from Valley (surprisingly minimal due to the home's orientation) etc when you have that perfect unerring metric of price per square foot to fall back on?

Second, this blog is clearly biased against homesellers. The mission statement of this blog is to show how bad the real estate market has been and will continue to be, a fact that his sour grapes cult followers count on, so any “guesstimate” on an unseen home’s value is naturally going to be on the pessimistic side.

Third, MBW and his followers (the execrable Mookie, in particular) get a particularly perverse pleasure out of trumpeting the price drops and other financial difficulties of high-end homesellers. For MBW, the explanation is probably because, deep down, their accumulation of wealth is antithetical to our left-wing blog host’s “age of Obama” , "you shouldn't be living with such a large carbon footprint" politics (I’m going out on a limb here with your political persuasion but I’m certain my read is accurate).

I’m just surprised when you concluded with a $2.7 million sale for 2603 Palm that you didn’t also tell the owner that an asking price too much above that was ‘delusional’ (your very word to describe other high-end homesellers on this blog).

Re: Price Adjustments East and West

BeachCitiesHuggy — Sun, 16 May 2010 02:16:58 -0000

Even a blind squirrel etc, MBPV.