Disqus - Friends of BarryStephens

Re: Fibs+Channel=Perfect FXI Exit

hiker — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 23:50:16 -0000

a friendly hello to you dowoperator - how many yes or no answers to other trader's questions about market direction really in fact help the person asking the question. since the person giving the answer has in his own mind the:

risk/reward parameters surrounding the yes or no
and the timeframe of the trade plan involved in the yes or no
and all the TA considerations involved in the yes or no

traders need to learn NOT to ask others what they think. the proper trading method is based on the individuals risk tolerance, trade management skills, and execution capacity of the trade plan and all that is involved. a trader learns nothing useful about any of this by asking someone's opinion. an opinion is worthless if the depth of foundation for such is not given voice...who has the time to do this in these forums while trading and having a life, as well.

Re: YHOO+MSFT=NSCP+AOL

hiker — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 15:29:29 -0000

good article, Tim. thanks for posting it. I participate in a TA email listserve where Michael participated in the past, and he is a smart guy.

if you feel like it, take a look at the Friday chart version of SPX daily, with my brief comment and spin a reason based in your fib or other resistance methods why the current advance is NOT likely to push through the resistance zones that can be identified...

http://forums.technicalwatc...

whether fib-based or t/l 's or horizontals or MA's. It can be argued or forecasted either direction right now...PRICE pays as Brian Shannon is known to regularly cite. SPX has closed one day above 1370 major horizontal, and several NYA major horizontals are below recent daily closes. This is PRICE speaking. The more such consecutive closes, if any, the more attention will be paid the the upside potentiial. Look forward to your thoughts and have a good weekend. Peace to you. Steve

Re: YHOO+MSFT=NSCP+AOL

hiker — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:56:08 -0000

the NYA advance-decline line advanced yesterday by 1606, and today by 1845. anything over 1500 is on the unusual side of the scale, just like any one day decline in the A-D line of -1900 is rare. Confirmation by the positive move in the A-D line of the current price advance off recent horizontal supports, not to mention other support items.

for NYA, the ratio yesterday of up to down volume was 4.76. today's no. is not yet calculated by the charting services. Since the KEY REVERSAL day recently, the ratio has become even more bullish...once again confirming upside price action with the volume stats.

Re: Pounce the Bounce?

hiker — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 18:24:16 -0000

Carl Swenlin at www.decisionpoint.com subscription service says the proprietary indicators he uses are in overbought territory now, and coupled with the heavy resistance determined by t/l's, etc...he expects a topping process in the works...followed by a retest of the recent low...followed by a failure of that low to hold. He BELIEVES we entered and remain in a bear market, and the trend shall continue to favor downside price behavior. Interesting.....you have to pay the $20 per mo. for a wealth of info on the indices and the sector and the leaders/losers in each sector. Carl has been around forever...all of us that know him love him. He is not always correct in his market summary, but who is?

Re: The Thrill Can Kill

hiker — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 10:02:20 -0000

ISRG - for those of you here who trade it, I have long traded these key names in the big pharma and medical devices sector, and regularly compile stats on a few names in this sector for comparison purposes. I traded ISRG for three roundtrips since Thurs. after hours based on the chart posted in this link. I hold 3 of the names in this group long presently -

see the thread entitled "big pharma and medical devices"...it only includes the names in the sector that I regularly consider for trading either short or long and have traded all of these for at least 3 years or so.

http://forums.technicalwatc...

Re: The Thrill Can Kill

hiker — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 10:22:58 -0000

Hi Michael....my posted link here replies to your specific question - NYSE short interest to be reported again soon I think -

http://www.websitetoolbox.c...

regarding your thoughts expressed earlier about the immediate market direction, Fib's (Dave's) EW count and interpretation is updated here in this link...he is one of the better EW folks I know...he waffles much less than most EW technicians because his discipline helps him avoid being fooled by the emotion of the moment -

http://www.websitetoolbox.c...

this point of his cathces my eye -

Intermediate wave (3) lies directly ahead, and with the sentiment platform provided at the recent lows, the rest of 2008 should be a highly profitable one for the bulls.

the way he explains EW -

http://www.websitetoolbox.c...

------
related to this topic, some charts and discussion of interest here from Saturday -

http://www.websitetoolbox.c...

Re: The Thrill Can Kill

hiker — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 11:00:23 -0000

I expect it will be reported again this coming week..here is a post I made that contains a link summarizing the most recent NYSE short interest stats -

http://www.websitetoolbox.c...

Re: The Thrill Can Kill

hiker — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 11:04:50 -0000

hi Michael,

I think short interest is again reported by the NYSE soon. It was most recently reported in mid-January, and was record levels for the exchange.

Re: The Thrill Can Kill

hiker — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 11:06:26 -0000

the Reuters link for the most recent report of which I am aware -

http://www.reuters.com/arti...

Re: The Thrill Can Kill

hiker — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 11:34:38 -0000

the lower the Fed pushes rates..the higher will gold travel. simply see GLD price action following each moment the FOMC decision has been announced since the Sept FOMC.

this is a little more than you asked about GOLD -

the final two charts in this link relate -

http://forums.technicalwatc...

Re: Not Bulls or Bears...........Wolves

hiker — Sun, 03 Feb 2008 19:44:13 -0000

hi Michael,

we live where wolves are common. last winter we took a drive and saw one alpha male with 6 females in f ield ...every few minutes one of them would pull up a ground rodent of some kind and lift their head and swallow it. I have some pics of those sightings...we were parked about 100 yards from the wolves...the larger and darker male crossed the road directly in front of us while we were parked. It was fun watching them hunt in the winter.

another funny story is we saw an active wolf den one spring along the bluffs facing the Snake River...and it was located on the bluff where the Governor of TN has his summer home. The female simply stood and howled near the opening of the den, because we were traveling toward her with our lab who wanted to swim in the nearby pond.

have a good trading week!

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 09:52:52 -0000

am short SPY from resistance today...stop now above SPX 1386...will take a stop out exit if this a.m. weakness does not continue...iffy but rally failure at horiozontal R and other R could be a sign.

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 09:56:42 -0000

stopped out with profit protection..that was a quick trade...too iffy to give it much more time.

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:06:04 -0000

covered GOOG short posted here Friday....may consider going back in below lod.

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:16:22 -0000

goog 80wk sma is 513.78...this is the first weekly move below since early 2006 when enough data for this MA

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:17:17 -0000

weekly RSI 9 is below 30 for the first time in history of the weekly chart

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:25:51 -0000

one other viewpoint by TA professionals is that bullish turns following severe price corrections exhibit weakness most of the day with buying near the close.

this keeps the majority from participating and/or believing in the turn back up.

the buying occurs in concentrated bursts.

you notice that about last week daily action...much of the day was either a slow grind up, or not much noticeable strength until later in the day.

XHB XLF IYR are the leading % losers today of 50 ETF type traders on my list...not anything I observed any part of any day last week.

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:38:36 -0000

SMH RTH and XLY...other bastions of strength from last week...are now in the top ten leading % ETF type losers today

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:57:01 -0000

volume posted only on daily charts...not shorter timeframes or SPX, NYA, etc.

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:57:26 -0000

or = for

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:58:49 -0000

fwiw, I am now long SPY with stop below rising 15sma on the 60 min

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 11:01:00 -0000

SPY must move above 138.80 at some point or I bail on a higher stop out exit strategy

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 11:20:32 -0000

hi VT..not sure what is up with the others.

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 11:29:41 -0000

- Fueling the Solar Energy Boom.

Re: Fresh Preserves

hiker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 11:30:20 -0000

http://www.businessweek.com...