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Re: Quick Thought - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 01:10:58 -0000

I use optionsxpress plus thinkorswim - but don't see open interest numbers anywhere. I do see volume in the charts and in the chains - o.i. seems tough to find. Any pointers welcome - I just started trading a month ago and I'm treating 'very carefully' ;-) -- Cheers - Michael

Re: I Almost Forgot... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 11:18:32 -0000

Just looked at the dollar index. The current low is not accompanied by increasing volume (today: roughly over 5000), suggesting that the current move lacks broad participation. Could there be a rebound soon? I know that this sounds unrealistic, personally I don't see any indicators that would breathe new life into the dollar, but the low volume is suspicious. Should the dollar recover slightly early next week it might pull gold back below its recent resistance line around 940 (945 today). The 40 day average for gold currently hovers around 946 - once that is being crossed it will trigger speculative fund buy stops. So, I'm watching the dollar like a hawk (hoping it'll drop further - sorry, not trying to sound unpatriotic ;-)

BTW, whoever traded $DXY at the beginning of this week just doubled up :-)

Re: I Almost Forgot... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 11:33:45 -0000

Babydoomer - first up, kudo's for 'dollar swirling around the rim of the toilet' - your comment made my day :-) Regarding the Euro - I would be careful about any expectations of ECB interest rates being lowered any time soon. Jean-Claude Trichet is known as an interest rate hawk and he already postulated a week ago that they are keeping an eye on inflation. European inflation that is (Germany's stats looked pretty bad) - as much as they want a stronger Dollar, the ECB needs to keep its own inflation statistics in check, and recently even an increase has been suggested. Should that happen, you'll see the Dollar do it's final swirling down and begin it's journey to Never Never Land.

Re: Closing Bell: GOOG on Parade - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 00:05:45 -0000

Yeah, I actually watched some of that at work but had to leave the house - can't wait to finish it. FYI - they just posted it on their archive:

http://www.thinkorswim.com/...

Re: Closing Bell: GOOG on Parade - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 00:12:10 -0000

I bought a nice little May vertical on the ESM8 today. The S&P is going to hit 1440 in the coming weeks - it's got a lot of stored up energy. Today was just another innocuous "doji" day, which is very common after a big white candle. In fact, this is one of the most predictable things in markets; that is, after a big candle a market will pause for a day right around the closing level. It's also very common for any dips down into the "body" of the big candle to be rejected, as we saw in the SPX on Thursday. After listening to Tom Sosnoff yesterday I completely expected today's movement. He mentioned that the Thursday after a 'big pre-expiration Wednesday' is always is a bit flat. You just never stop learning - which is something I really like about getting into the options game. Knowledge is power, boys and girls :-)

Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:23:18 -0000

I'm holding gold futures (GCM8) right now and am down today as well. However, I dug deep this morning and held out until the end of the trading day (per your recommendation) and as expected gold was able to work itself back up and barely touch the important 921 resistance line. So, I'm going to hold it for now as the medium term outlook for gold is pretty good. This was basically a fed sponsored sell off - nothing else. Look at the chart and you'll see that all this started over night and really picked up steam early in the morning when NY opened. Actually, this was a great opportunity to buy on the dip - if you have the cohones to do so :-)

Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:37:29 -0000

Word has it you're trading the grains. Would love to pick your brain on this one of these days. I have also posted a related thread in the discussion board. Perhaps you can chime in....

Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:39:57 -0000

Charts ARE PORN for option addicts ;-)

Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:53:03 -0000

"I had faith
it would happen eventually, but I was long during some pretty depressing
times."

At least you didn't go long gold, like me ;-) Meh! It'll pull out ...

Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 16:09:03 -0000

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tr><td style="font: inherit;">Hey Steve:

Well, how about this. I'm a gold bug and will share what I know about gold in exchange for a few tips on the grains :-)

Here goes a quick primer: gold is obviously being whipped around a lot, especially the futures (stick with GLD if you can't take the heat). Deepcast.com claims that the 'boys' are close to taking it down again, I think we actually saw some of this today - look at the chart and volume starting at 8:20am EDT. On the other side of the opinion spectrum are a few technical people who all seem to agree that it's in a 'gentle' uptrend - they have been pretty con$i$tent as of late. Meaning, it might push across 940 again and go all the way up to 968 and perhaps even 998 - three important resistance zones. We're not in a clear bull trend though, IMHO, because there are 'unnatural' forces at work, which we small traders have no access to. I
made the big mistake of going long too late and got killed twice that way. It's essential to buy on dips right now - this is a swing market!!! Had I not been long already I would most definitely have bought today - perfect buying opportunity. I'm sticking with my view that gold is pretty bullish in the near term. However, as a caveat - if it drops below 912 again on Monday and cannot recover there might be a some trouble brewing and prove those deepcaster guys right. (fyi - they called the recent takedown days before it happened - and they called today's action yesterday). I'm not one to buy into other people's analysis, but if they keep being right.... ;-)

Cheers,

Michael

--- On Fri, 4/18/08, Disqus <> wrote:

From: Disqus <>
Subject:
[Disqus] Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the  Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
To: mmehrle@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, April 18, 2008, 12:51 PM

Duuuuuude wrote:

I will check out the discussion board.  I do know a lot about the grains, 
and a bit about the meats.  I am happy to share what I know in the same 
spirit Jeff shares his insights with us.  You may email me any time 
srwade@kvnet.org.

Thanks,

Steve

Link:
http://optionaddict.disqus.com/i_love_the_smell_of_profits_in_thenbspmorning_blog_jeff_kohler_the_option_addict_stock_and_options_trading/#comment-353656

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Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 16:16:03 -0000

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tr><td style="font: inherit;">Oh fuck, I knew you would ask me that - LOL. On Tuesday when it hit 940 - got in at 945. Yes, yes, I know I screwed up .... NEVER NEVER NEVER buy on top of the rally. Don't ask me what I was thinking - dumb move, don't tell anyone ;-)

Thing is with gold futures: the rallies happen really fast and so do the dips. Today is a great example - it blew down to 912 within an hour and then slowly recovered a little bit but still was down. THAT IS when I should have gotten in. I actually marked my charts and 70% of all sudden drops/breaks happen right in the first hour. I'm in L.A., which makes it very tough to trade gold since I'm not an early riser. No excuse of course - need to get my ass out of bed.

Michael

--- On Fri, 4/18/08, Disqus <> wrote:

From: Disqus <>
Subject: [Disqus] Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the  Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
To: mmehrle@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, April 18, 2008, 1:02 PM
Duuuuuude wrote:

When did you go long?

Link:
http://optionaddict.disqus.com/i_love_the_smell_of_profits_in_thenbspmorning_blog_jeff_kohler_the_option_addict_stock_and_options_trading/#comment-353725

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Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 16:37:04 -0000

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tr><td style="font: inherit;">Well, you are exactly at the point where I was a month ago. I have been an avid follower of Jim Sinclair (http://www.jsmineset.com - great charts), Trader Dan, Tulip, Daily Reckoning, Deepcaster, and a bunch of other gold bugs. So, I know EXACTLY what you are saying and have been expecting doom and gloom for the last few months. What they are saying is supposed to be happening for years now. But then you keep seeing the markets rally over bullshit news. Like crude oil drops one buck to 113 and the Dollar pushes up to 72 - and BOOOOM everyone is selling gold like as if it's got an expiration date on it. We all know it doesn't make sense, but IT'S HAPPENING. Lesson #1 in gold: you cannot fight the feds and you have to time your entries and exits. In a way trading gold is the ultimate options game - you can make a shit load of money but you can also lose your shirt in an hour.
So, if you can trade gold, you can trade anything, IMHO.

So, my strategy was to play the swings, and I think I'm getting close to figuring out the timing etc - we'll see if I'm right with gold pushing back up next week. But I wouldn't want to give anyone any recommendations, especially after my nightmare trade on Tuesday. It's a rythm thing - the market is going to do what it's going to do. But we are - unfortunately - at least several months away from any of the bad news to really seriously start affecting the market (I know that sounds cynical, but I'm a gold bug and I think we're heading into a crisis - not that this is a bad thing. As the old expression goes: When there's blood in the streets, buy property).

My long term strategy is to trade gold all the way up to 1600 and beyond. But right now it's in a consolidation period and this might take months. Perhaps I might even step aside and trade the grains or Jeff's recommendations
until things have sorted themselves out a bit more (e.g. the Feds are running out of ammunition and the gold shorts out of easy money).

BTW, I've got Yahoo chat, which is 'mmehrle' or AIM which is michaelmehrle. Would love to bounce some ideas back and forth during trading. Actually, having a trade buddy may be fproductive - seems like we're interested in similar approached to the market. As a software engineer I witnessed first hand that 'pair programming' (a new practice used in modern software development methodologies) produces better code and reduces the amount of bugs. Perhaps a similar approach among like minded traders may be successful - what do you think?

Cheers,

Michael

--- On Fri, 4/18/08, Disqus <> wrote:

From: Disqus
<>
Subject: [Disqus] Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the  Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
To: mmehrle@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, April 18, 2008, 1:19 PM

Duuuuuude wrote:

I think some major shifts are underway.  You see bond yields spiking upward 
above resistance and financials doing the same while gold looks weak. 
Transportation looks strong despite high fuel prices, and housing is strong 
also, despite a depressed housing market.  The S&P looks to be making a
head 
and shoulders bottom.  I can't pretend that I know what all this means, but

I just have this feeling as though there is a new trend to jump on and ride. 
I think the trends we have been on this past year are becoming old, and the 
easy money has been made.  I would be interested in what Jeff thinks about 
this.  Kelly Allan is more of a
 fundamentalist (almost sounds religious) 
than Jeff is, and he has a nice way of putting these things together.

Link:
http://optionaddict.disqus.com/i_love_the_smell_of_profits_in_thenbspmorning_blog_jeff_kohler_the_option_addict_stock_and_options_trading/#comment-353824

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Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 16:40:03 -0000

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tr><td style="font: inherit;">MY THOUGHTS EXACTLY. I'm not kidding - what you just wrote me was added to my personal trading blog two days ago. The very same resolutions, almost word by word. HA!!!

BTW, my direct email address is mmehrle@yahoo.com. I'll be attending Jeff's session in 20 minutes, btw.

Michael

--- On Fri, 4/18/08, Disqus <> wrote:

From: Disqus <>
Subject: [Disqus] Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the  Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
To: mmehrle@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, April 18, 2008, 1:34 PM

Duuuuuude wrote:

We all have been there, so who am I to say you screwed up.  I had on 4
 
trades.....two of which I mentioned in JOYG and AGU that I exited today 
which were home runs, and two which were bombs.  I needed my home runs to 
make up for my duds.  I think one of the biggest lessons I have ever learned 
is that bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.  Every 
time my fear or greed gets me into a position, I get my ass handed to me. 
When I am patient, and trade by my rules and not the markets rules, I come 
out on top.  I will never again take a trade that is not against support or 
resistance, or one that goes against the overall trend.  I will sit here on 
my cash until I see one I like.  Just those rules should keep you from 
messing up too terribly bad.

Link:
http://optionaddict.disqus.com/i_love_the_smell_of_profits_in_thenbspmorning_blog_jeff_kohler_the_option_addict_stock_and_options_trading/#comment-353899

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 response.  To turn off notifications,
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Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:37:03 -0000

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tr><td style="font: inherit;">Sounds like a plan. I personally am vested in gold and the SPX right now (playing both sides). Need to see how gold fares next week and if I'm going to exit. In any case - let's stay in touch.

Michael

--- On Fri, 4/18/08, Disqus <> wrote:

From: Disqus <>
Subject: [Disqus] Re: I Love the Smell of Profits in the  Morning - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
To: mmehrle@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, April 18, 2008, 1:47 PM

Duuuuuude wrote:

Sure, we can give it a try.  Keep me posted.  I need to spend some time 
figuring out which direction to go here.  I will most likely jump back in on 
the companies I
 sold today when they come back down, which probably won't 
take very long given the way they usually trade.

Link:
http://optionaddict.disqus.com/i_love_the_smell_of_profits_in_thenbspmorning_blog_jeff_kohler_the_option_addict_stock_and_options_trading/#comment-353963

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Re: "Not So" Volatile Market Open House - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:41:57 -0000

BTW, since Jeff mentioned ROH - it's got an earnings report scheduled for Monday ;-) Might make for an interesting play.

Re: I Almost Forgot... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 22:31:03 -0000

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tr><td style="font: inherit;">I'm actually a German (living in sunny Los Angeles) and trust me when I tell you that we Germans are paranoid about inflation. We had quite a bout of that during our Weimar Republic, which opened the door for Adolf to come in and create a bit of havoc. We have slowly recovered emotionally, economically, and politically in the decades since WWII but have never lost our fixation of keeping inflation under control. Germany is one of the strongest purporter of low inflation and it is actually Germany's recent increase of inflation numbers that has prompted Jean-Claude Trichard to consider 'raising rates if necessary.' Might be a bluff, but I just don't see them do that just to prop up the dollar, as they have their own daemons to battle. Remember that Europe is not Britain (economically, of course Britain is part of the EU) - and it is Britain that actually resembles the U.S. a
lot more economically than Europe. Not that the ECB isn't as bad as our own Feds - they've been surreptitiously playing the 'bail out game' since late 2007 - Bernanke is actually behind the bandwagon in this game.

I have been keeping up to date on the whole Dollar/Euro situation and it seems the Dollar is fighting a losing game against the Yen, the Euro, and in particular the Yuan/Renminbi. In terms of market context I couldn't summarize the situation better than Trader Dan's summary of today's gold swat-down:

http://www.jsmineset.com/cw...

Take a look and let me know what you think. I'm sure the Dollar with swing up and down in the coming weeks, but in the 'longer term' - boy, trying to keep my money out of the Dollar was one of the reasons I decided to go back into trading after an 8 year absence.

Cheers,

Michael

--- On Fri, 4/18/08, Disqus
<> wrote:

From: Disqus <notifications-BOFRO1L W5K@disqus.net>
Subject: [Disqus] Re: I Almost  Forgot... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
To: mmehrle@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, April 18, 2008, 6:11 PM

babydoomer wrote:

molecool,

I'm having a hard time figuring out where money is headed, inflation or
deflation, and there seems to be arguments on both sides.  So far, it seems
that the US is exporting inflation and harming the rest of the world, but I
have recently been reading some compelling arguments that we aren't
printing new money at all, but increasing credit, (which isn't
inflationary?  I thought credit was money.)  Anyway, I'm not sure the
bigshots in charge have any better handle on this than I do
 (hope I'm
wrong) but there are parts of the EU that are desperate for stimulus in the
form of rate cuts, and now it's up to politics.  I'd put my money on
the Germans (fear of inflation) but who knows?  My money is bet against my
money.

Link:
http://optionaddict.disqus.com/i_almostnbspforgot_blog_jeff_kohler_the_option_addict_stock_and_options_trading/#comment-354742

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Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:07:07 -0000

I actually placed an SPX spread last week and it's already very close to being completely ITM. The short leg is set at 1400, so there's a pretty decent chance it'll expire profitable if it can cross this resistance level. Then again - a lot can happen in the next three weeks, but it was a cheap trade at the time, so what the heck.

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:14:32 -0000

Jeff - dumb question: How does one get to those drawing tools in TOS so quickly? You're somehow 'just doing it'. I always spend a lot of time navigating those clumsy right-button menus to select my drawing tools. Please help me out here - there's obviously some key shortcut.

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:54:12 -0000

HA! Under the 'drawing tools' menu I had 'hide tools' selected. All good now - thanks mate! :-)

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:55:16 -0000

Sprichst Du Deutsch?

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 11:03:23 -0000

Thanks for that - good stuff - starting to like those grains :-) Gold is a bit choppy right now, but I don't see it drop much below 921. If I wasn't already in a trade I'd be buying right now.

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 11:10:08 -0000

Dec Corn down 26 right now (11:09 EDT) - very nice :-) Think it'll go much lower or is it time for a call?

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 11:22:36 -0000

Gold/silver is not for the faint of heart right now. However, if you look at the Friday chart, you'll see that silver bounced back a lot stronger than gold, in part due to a increasing silver shortage. So, why is it going down then? Well, precious metals all trade in semi-tandem (platinum being most stable), but also take a look at my posting in the discussion board last weekend, titled 'why gold was hacked on Friday and why' - it gives you an idea of what's happening out there. Again, not for the faint of heart. My advice would be to stay out of gold until a clear consolidation is taking place - which means a strong push towards 940 (which where I would take profits). It actually just broke below 920, which is not good and I'll have to keep an eye on this. Traders with big cohones might see this as a nice buying opportunity, but only if gold pulls back in the next hour or so and finishes above 918 or so. If it breaks below that we might see a drop to 880 tomorrow. Silver - same game - seriously, there are easier fish to fry right now, why deal with the headache?

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 11:31:44 -0000

This looks like a good play. I'm looking at the 3-month chart and it's looking like a roller coaster. The height of the peaks seems close to being the same in weekly intervals. Agree there - if it stays below 140, this may be a good play to get in with a 140/135 target. Might even push down to 134, but we all should play it carefully these days. A lot of money looking for small profits out there.

Re: The Return of the "Weekly Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

Sir Mole III — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 13:15:03 -0000

<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tr><td style="font: inherit;">Exactly - adhering to clear entry/exit signals seems to be essential to being able to survive this choppy market of late. No hero stuff unless you've got some kind of insight track.

Michael

--- On Mon, 4/21/08, Disqus <> wrote:

From: Disqus <>
Subject: [Disqus] Re: The Return of the " Weekly  Watchlist" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading
To: mmehrle@yahoo.com
Date: Monday, April 21, 2008, 8:41 AM

Duuuuuude wrote:

Easy is good.  In this market, I need a very strong trend, and would prefer 
to focus on high probability trades.   Don't throw anything at me, but I
was
 
watching a video on "Thestreet.com" draw a quick chart, and forecast
a pull 
back to $750 before resuming higher.   The grains are having a pullback that 
is similar, but should hit that support area sooner, helped by some bad 
weather.  I like entering my larger trades at areas of strong support, and 
exiting where I believe it will meet strong resistance.  Anywhere in between 
just keeps me way too nervous.

Link:
http://optionaddict.disqus.com/the_return_of_the_quotweeklynbspwatchlistquot_blog_jeff_kohler_the_option_addict_stock_and_options_trading/#comment-360548

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